Remember the time when the opposition claimed that the President was selling out to China lock, stock and barrel and that we would end up being “owned” by China because of their official development assitance and commercial loans?
On June 30, a new administration will take office and that forecast never came true. Our debt-to-GDP ratio has gone up to 61% because of borrowings to finance the pandemic but we are not in as bad a position as Sri Lanka, which is now in an economic crisis of epic proportions.
Dan Steinbock writes in the Manila Times:
IN May 2017, Forbes magazine released a column that claimed that “New Philippine debt of $167 billion could balloon to $452 billion: China will benefit.” It was written by Anders Corr, who was portrayed as an “independent” geopolitical risk analyst.
Anders Corr
“Over 10 years,” Corr boldly predicted “that could balloon [the] Philippines’ debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio as high as 296 percent, the highest in the world.” Fueled by expensive loans from China, he said, “Dutertenomics will put the Philippines into virtual debt bondage.”
Around 2016-2017, the Philippine authorities, including the Bureau of Treasury (BoT), expected the debt to mildly decline between 2017 and 2022.
In retrospect, the pandemic devastation caused debt levels to soar worldwide. But did the Philippine debt-per-GDP soar to 300 percent as Corr predicted? No, it did not. It is today around 60 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) and sustainable (see figure 1).
Does China account for most of that debt as Corr projected? No, it doesn’t. Over 70 percent of the debt is domestic. Does China dominate the external debt? No, it doesn’t.
Eight foreign creditors account for three-fourths of all Philippine external debt. Dominating one-third of that debt, Japan is in a class of its own. It is followed by the United States, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. Even Taiwan is a bigger creditor than China whose role in the external debt is about 5 percent of the total (see figure 2).
In light of his own numbers, Corr is off by almost 240 percentage points.
When Forbes published Corr’s rant, GMA News, one of the major networks, headlined boldly: “China will benefit: Duterte’s P8.2T infra program may force PHL into ‘bondage’.”
Rappler rushed to interview communist leader Jose Maria Sison, who remains in the Netherlands and has been classified as a “person supporting terrorism” by the US since 2002. Sison claimed “Chinese loans might trap PH to give up West PH Sea.” Rappler used a PhD candidate to foster the tale of how the country “fell for China’s infamous debt trap.” And it portrays Corr as a “Xinjiang ‘concentration camp’ expert.”
Rappler has been funded by the secretive US billionaire Pierre Omidyear, who has cooperated with the US State Department and the National Endowment for Democracy.
ABS-CBN News, another major news network, often releases Corr’s comments warning that the country “risks sovereignty with loans from China,” portrays him as a Covid lockdown expert,” and recently quoted his rants the Ukraine crisis will incite China “to tighten grip in Asia.”
ABS-CBN is owned by the Lopez family, a powerful Philippine dynasty.
Philippine Star released an op-ed suggesting that the Duterte government’s infrastructure building spree would “hock Philippines to China.” Federico Pascual Jr. quoted Corr verbatim, warning that “Duterte apologists” cannot dismiss the Forbes/Corr truths.
The Star’s key owner is MediaQuest Holdings Inc., an affiliate of telecom company PLDT, controlled by Hong Kong-based First Pacific; which, in turn, is chaired by Indonesian oligarch Anthoni Salim and headed by Manuel Pangilinan, a critic of Duterte and China, like his board member, ex-Foreign secretary Albert del Rosario.
Subsequently, del Rosario’s Stratbase ADR Institute released a research paper on the Chinese BRI globalization warning about “proposed Chinese investment in the Philippines.” To ADRi, Corr’s piece proved the point.
These outlets share a common denominator: they rely on foreign funding, or are owned by the Philippine 1 percent elite, or both. Oddly, their Corr promotion fosters a perception that journalistic integrity is not their primary goal.
Recall during this period that the opposition was very vocal about the Chinese debt trap and using the same as fodder against the President who went on several visits to China. It came to the point that Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez, visibly piqued by an article in the Philippine Start writted by Prinz Magtulis, asked the broadsheet’s management to pull the story because it was laden with false information.
Despite this, the opposition continued their attacks on the fiscal management policies of the Economic Cluster of the Cabinet. The issue of debt was highlighted again last year as the Senate Blue Ribbon committee launched an investigation into the Department of Budget and Management’s Procurement Service dealings with Pharmally, a company which supplied face mask, face shields and personal protective equipment to the Department of Health. To date, the Senate Blue Ribbon committee’s partial report remains unsigned by the majority of Senators. Committee Chair Sen. Dick Gordon is now silent on the issue because he is busy campaigning for reelection under the opposition coalition.
As the Duterte administration is about to end its tenure, no media organization has come out with an article which contains a scorecard based on its 0 – 10 Socio-Economic agenda. The Philippines managed to obtain another credit rating upgrade during which speaks very well of the performance of the Cabinet’s Economic Cluster led by Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez. The team has prepared a turnover for the incoming administration and is ready to give its economic team a briefing once the appointments have been made.
The Department of Finance has managed to accomplish eighty-percent of its goals with respect to the Comprehensive Tax Reform Program launched in 2016. There have been significant gains made with respect to infrastructure development, ease of doing business and economic policiys which needed to be adjusted in light of the disruption caused by the pandemic.
It is clear that the opposition has not been able to substantiate any of its claims against the government. All of these was for the most part, propaganda without any basis in fact. Under the circumstances, the Duterte administration has done better than the Aquino administration since it did not have to contend with an adverse global economic environment.
Thus, it begs the question, why should you vote for the opposition candidates when they have done nothing to contribute to nation-building? The only stellar achievement they have is to criticize the President and make it appear that the Philippines is under an authoritarian dictatorship when in truth and in fact, democracy and the rule of law are both alive and well.
Leni Robredo has done nothing during her term as Vice-President to help in nation-building. She does not understand the concept of critical collaboration nor does she realize that she was not elected to serve only pro-Robredo voters but every Filipino, including those who did not vote for her. She does not deserve to become the President since she has no leadership traits at all. She is nothing but a puppet beholden to her political patrons.
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