Black swan events are those which occur with the least probabilty and expectation, yet cause the most disruption. The pandemic began in 2020 and is still ongoing. BA.5 is supposed to evade even the vaccinated and those who have are both vaccinated and have had some variant of Covid in the past. It’s being referred to in the US as the Ninja variant.
Since 2021, we have been able to reopen to an extent as vaccination went into high gear. What was supposed to be a hybrid campaing for the 2022 election reverted back to the traditional campaign with candidates mounting huge rallies. Out went physical distancing as a part of minimum health protocols.
Just the other day, the first Cabinet meeting of the Marcos administration discussed the conduct of face-to-face classes come November. The President also met with DOH officials but there was no mention of the NCR+’s positivity rate going up beyond the median 5% set by the WHO. There is a marked increase in the number of daily cases which means that BA.5 is making its presence in the country felt.
This was confirmed with the Malcanan announcement yesterday that no less than the President has tested positive for Covid again.
Election fever gripped the country since last year. People were probably not as conscious of oil price hikes and inflation but after the fever died down, the public is now beginning to feel the effects. We have to contend with inflation, high oil prices and the peso depreciating against the dollar. The good or the bad depends on which fence you find yourself sitting on.
In the meantime, the lack of direction for the past thirty years in terms of food and energy security is finally catching up with us. We’re deficient in both. It’s only during the Duterte administration that there has been a focus on these but while a slew of economic reform measures were put in place and the primary problem of peace and order was addressed, our agriculture and education sector’s problems were not given enough attention. It doesn’t help that the opposition has been washing their hands of the blame considering all of these were largely their own making during their time in power.
We continue to be held captive by oligarchs who replaced the colonial masters. About the only devolution which was implemented under the local government code was the creation of fiefdoms in the LGUs. The last election cycle and the post-election movements have confirmed the impending demise of the national political party. You don’t see any line forming for politicos to become members of the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas. They know the ruling party is Lakas-CMD. PDP-Laban still has three Senators but there it’s time is almost over as well. This would be the best time for charter change but alas, our Senators don’t think of it as a priority. Simply put, they don’t want to lose their jobs which pays them very handsomely for not much work.
You get the sense that Marcos is still feeling his way through and hasn’t really hit the ground running. Perhaps all will be in place in time for his SONA. Maybe then the vision and direction will be clearer. Marcos mentioned in his inaugural speech that six years may be enough for the continuation of what the Duterte administration began and to fix the food and energy crisis. He doesn’t see a need to reform the political structure for continuity and consistency for long-term development. This is the basic root of all our problems since 1946. We are the laggard in ASEAN with our form of government in contrast to the more progressive Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.
Marcos needs to be more assertive and take the bull by the horns. He has the mandate and the political capital. The opposition is dead. For all intents and purposes he is better off compared to Apo Lakay when he was elected President in 1965. He also needs to get out from being under the shadow of Marcos Sr.
The black swan event that is the pandemic is still upon us and continues to cause disruption. Marcos should become a disruptive President and do away with established paradigms if he wants to leave behind a solid legacy. In a world where comebacks aren’t the norm and are seldom successful, Marcos must make the most out of the mandate given to him by the Filipino people and set the vision and direction for a more progressive Philippines despite the challenges posed by the present environment.
The political structure, the bureaucracy’s gridlock and the justice system needs to be reformed if we are to become an investment destination like our ASEAN neighbors. No amount of amendments to existing laws or the opening up of industries will attract foreign investors if the perception of an unlevel playing field continues.
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