Are Leni and Isko turning the tide?
Hope springs eternal among opposition spinmeisters.
This is what affects both Richard Heydarian and Manuel Quezon III, two of the opposition’s voices who still believe that Leni Robredo has a chance of winning the Presidency. In the case of Heydarian, he is betting on another horse, in Isko Moreno.
The latest Pulse Asia survey shows Marcos is still leading his rivals overwhelmingly. Quezon casts a shadow of doubt on surveys even if he himself is a firm believer in the same. Remember that he, Edwin Lacierda and Abigail Valte, formed a campaign management outfit sometime 2017. That did not last very long. You wonder why they were not included in Robredo’s think-tank. Probably because they are identified with Mar Roxas, who was initially for Isko before casting his lot with Leni again.
But basically, Quezon, Heydarian and a third voice, John Nery of cRappler, would like the public to believe that Robredo for President has become a movement with momentum, based on the attendance of her barnstorming rally’s across the country.
Len-Len has been campaigning like a madwoman lately, going from Mindanao, then back to Northern Luzon then back to Mindanao. You wonder if these is deliberate in order to showcase her indefatigable energy, working 18 hours a day. She claimed recently that if elected, she would be willing to extend the 18 hours which means that she will be the first President who will not be sleeping anymore.
The latest Pahayag poll by Publicus Asia shows Marcos with a 55% voter preference while Robredo is at 21%. This is due to the survey being focused on the ABC demographic where Robredo has her voter base. This refutes her claim that her core constituency is the “laylayan ng lipunan.”
Robredo’s strongest showing in the Southern Tagalog Region which includes her bailiwick, Region 5. Despite claims to the contrary, she will not likely win in Region 6, which is supposed to be an opposition bailiwick as well.
She may not even win in Iloilo, despite the statements of Mayor Jerry Trenas and Sen. Franklin Drilon. She is bound to lose in the other Panay provinces, primarily due to voter distaste for the Yellowidiots, given how there has not been much progress during their thirty-year watch. This is true even in Antique, which has only experienced some measure of progress when the carpet-bagging Loren Legarda, became their congressional representative. The Javier family is just making noise but they do not have the same clout as they did before during the heady days after Edsa.
Over in Negros, there is a new political kingpin in town. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is moving heaven and earth for a Marcos-Duterte victory. GMA is taking over the bastonero role left vacant with the demise of Danding Cojuangco. The NPC has been orphaned and GMA has been generous in taking in the political orphans under the wings of Lakas-CMD, through her sister in-law Rep. Marilou Arroyo. The endorsement of Gov. Bong Lacson may be an empty one given it was in conjuction with the Cosculluela’s and Maranon’s, who both do not have the same clout they did when they were governors. The hacenderos need government funding for a new staple crop given the US sugar quota is defunct. It also helps that the Araneta’s are from Bago and have their own network among the sugar planters. Then there is also the Yanzon family who has also thrown their support behind the Marcos-Duterte tandem. It does not look good for Len-Len in Region 6 altogether. This is why Robredo is only able to muster 19.1% in the Visayas as a whole.
It gets worse in Mindanao. Marcos is at 67% while Robredo is at 10.2%. She will probably only win in Misamis Oriental and Basilan, which is the bailiwick of Mujiv Hataman. Even Pac-Man gets beat by Ping Lacson in his home turf, most likely due to the strength of Bebot Alvarez’s machinery in the Davao region.
The opposition’s attempt at making the public believe that the momentum is turning in her favor is failing miserably even if the mainstream media is going at it with all barrels firing. You can see how the coverage is extremely biased in her favor but the netizens on social media who are pro-Marcos are doing a yeoman’s job of posting pictures and videos of Marcos’ campaign sorties throughout the country.
When I had the chance to visit Marcos’ campaign headquarters last November, his campaign team was working on the assumption that they would only win where they did in 2016. All the localities where they lost were marked Yellow. But this did not mean they would not exert the effort to win. At this time, Daughterte had not come on board yet and the campaign would only say that talks were ongoing. The tandem came together largely through the efforts of GMA, who took over behind-the-scenes when it became evident that PDP-Laban had come unhinged. There was no way that GMA would allow the Yellows to win again in this election cycle. Not if she could help it.
By the end of March, the campaign at the local government level officially begins. This will result in more consolidation as it becomes evident that Robredo does not stand a chance of winning on May 9. The same is true for the other candidates and the campaign financing will inevitably slow until it stops. It does not make any sense to throw good money after bad. By the time Holy Week rolls in, the only thing left to do is to prepare for May 9 and ensure that no fraud takes place.
The Marcos campaign did not see a landslide victory coming. They were prepared for another close race similar to 2016 given that there are five candidates vying for the top post again. What they did not count on was the shift in the political landscape where the national political party’s did not have the same impact as it had before. This was primarily due to the absence of kingmakers in each of the party’s concerned. Gone were the likes of Boss Danding who would shell out his personal funds to finance the campaigns of the NPC candidates. His top lieutenant, Ramon Ang, is backing Isko Moreno and is doling out funds to national candidates of his choice but none to the NPC grassroots. This is one reason why the Lacson-Sotto campaign did not make much headway anymore. Sotto was not able consolidate the NPC hierarchy after the demise of Cojuangco. The NUP under Ronnie Puno also went its own way after Isko left and moved to Aksyon Demokratiko.
All things being equal, provided there is no major election fraud or serious destabilization attempt from the leftist-militant groups which form part of the opposition coalition, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will return to Malacan Palance on June 30, 2022.
Thirty-six years after their ignominious ouster from power, the Marcos’ will have accomplished the greatest political comeback the world has ever seen.
Comments