[Newsstand] State of the opposition: Who leads?
I have to give it to the opposition’s cohorts in terms of their delusional fighting spirit which is a trait all narcissists share. Non-recognition of reality and continuing their existence in their own ecosystem.
Nery states that the primary goal of the opposition is keeping the gains of the Fifth Republic as symbolized by the 1987 Constitution. If you watched the exchange between Professor Clarita Carlos against Professor Solita Monsod during the inquiry called by the Senate Committee on Constitutional Amendments, you would have a sense of how the opposition wants the 1987 Constitution to be kep intact.
Carlos summed it up succinctly. Bawal ang bobo sa parliament. It is a talking legislative body she said. Stay quiet and you will be voted out of office in the next election. Those of you who have watched Gary Oldman’s The Darkest Hour on Amazon Prime, would have a good idea of how parliament works. Winston Churchill had to defend himself against members of his own party who weren’t in favor of his being elected Prime Minister during the start of World War II.
We must also bear in mind that we did have an experience with a parliamentary form of government from 1978 to 1986. This wasn’t the ideal since Marcos still retained his decree-making powers and the post of Prime Minister was largely akin to that of a Cabinet Secretary or even a Chief of Staff. A bastonero of sorts to keep the Cabinet members in line and comply with deadlines set by the President.
Marcos’ 1973 Constitution was patterned after the French parliamentary model, where the President wields more power and the Prime Minister is just the head of government. In Singapore, it is the reverse as the President performs a largely ministerial role while the head of government and the head of state is the Prime Minister.
Nery’s suggestions for the opposition are largely a joke.
The overriding objective is different from political or electoral or communication strategy. “Gobyernong tapat” [faithful government] remains the goal, “angat buhay lahat” [a better life for all] remains the dream. But only Robredo can transform the movement into a sustainable, effective political force.
She will need help: maybe Pangilinan can serve as chief spokesperson for the opposition and Bam Aquino can create the organization that will serve as the electoral vehicle; maybe Diokno can take the lead on legal issues, Sonny Trillanes on security, Teddy Baguilat on both environment and indigenous peoples’ issues, Leila de Lima on justice and human rights—a framework that borrows from the parliamentary practice of “shadow cabinets,” perhaps as a means of supporting the legislative work of Hontiveros in the Senate and Edcel Lagman et al in the House, may even be possible.
I have it on good authority that John Nery was one of the advisers of Bam Aquino during the campaign. Just look at the line-up of “leaders” he proposes. Aquino, Diokno, Pangilinan, Baguilat, De Lima, Hontiveros and Lagman.
Not one of them has won elective office legitimately. The opposition was decimated in the last three electoral cycles. There is no mention of a political party. Now it is a movement. More than likely Angat-Buhay will be transformed into a political party, combined with Kaya Natin.
Nery also contradicts himself because the concept of a shadow cabinet is only applicable in a parliamentary system where there is the possibility that the incumbent Prime Minister can be ousted by a no-confidence vote and the opposition party wins in an election called as a consequence of the vote.
The opposition missed the opportunity to turn Ninoy Aquino’s 39th death anniversary into a rallying point, an organizing principle, of collective stocktaking, consciousness-raising, and coalition-building. The valiant efforts to remember Aquino’s martyrdom last August 21 were thoughtful and inspiring, but they worked in spite of the lack of a unified campaign from the political parties that belong to the opposition.
The 50th anniversary of the imposition of martial rule, the proposal to postpone the already postponed barangay elections, the efforts to restart the Charter change train in earnest, the many related crises in agriculture: On these and more, the political opposition – as coalition of parties, as movement, as new organization – cannot be absent or silent. They must build what Tufekci would call their narrative capacity to shape the political environment, and it begins with Leni Robredo.
Nery argues that the leader of the opposition should still be none other than Leni Robredo. This is only logical because there is no one left. Not one of the names he mentioned as forming part of the “shadow cabinet” can muster votes to win elective office again. Hontiveros’ reelection is largely the product of horse-trading with local and regional politicos in exchange for largesse. Ronald Llamas surely had a a hand in this behind-the-scenes.
It begs the question if Leni Robredo will run for office in 2025. The highest office she can aspire for is Senator. Will 15M votes be enough for to to clinch a spot in the magic 12?
Then there is also the question if the Marcos administration has plans of amending the Constitution to begin with. This wasn’t mentioned as part of the long-term plan of the Marcos administration. Marcos said he supports federalism during the campaign but his omission of the same during his first SONA speaks volumes about his committment, or lack of, to the same.
To my mind, both the opposition and the administraion are suffering from the same lack of direction at this point. The opposition’s strategy is old, weary and proven to be a losing proposition time and time again since 2016.
The administration, on the other hand, is listless and is very disorganized at this point. For one who is younger than Duterte when he assumed office, Marcos’ visibility has been scarce and he has been keeping a very light schedule with at most two functions a day.
It will be the 50th anniversary of the declaration of martial law on September 21. I doubt very much if the opposition can make the level of noise that Nery wants. Since their defeat in May, the opposition has been bombarding the public with propaganda on social media. So far, only their crowd has been buying into it.
What’s more interesting to watch is the small band of Maros loyalists who are disappointed with BBM’s performance this early in his Presidency. A split in the Marcos bloc will prove to be a bane for the diehard Duterte supporters who continue to manifest loyalty to the former President.
Duterte’s appearance at the national assembly of PDP-Laban last week is a sign that although retired, he still intends to take an active role in party affairs in the background. It remains to be seen what his plans are but knowing how Duterte plays the game, he’s keeping his cards close to his chest and keeping his mouth shut since Sara is a member of the Marcos Cabinet.
The run-up to the midterm election of 2025 will reveal what the next move will be of the different power blocs in the political arena. For one, there hasn’t been a mass migration of politicians to the President’s party. For the first time since 1992, they have stuck with the political party’s they ran under the 2022 election.
The next six years are very critical because it’s the last chance we have to at least be at par with our regional neighbors in ASEAN. If not, even Cambodia might become our equal.
At the same time, the global geopolitical outlook isn’t good either. The NATO countries and Ukraine are playing a game of chicken with Russia. The US is doing the same with China over the issue of Taiwan. These are flashpoints which can’t be ignored. Western Europe will be in for a long hard and cold winter. The same is true for Eastern European states which support NATO’s cause in Ukraine.
What’s ironic is even with this situation, our officials still don’t have a sense of urgency to move and address the issues. I’m reminded of the sequence in Oro, Plata, Mata where the two families who represent Negros society continue to ignore the reality of war at their doorstep. They wait until the very last minute to evacuate to the hills for their safety.
Maybe the reality will only set in with them in 2023 when the economic situation gets worse. The only thing we can do is wait-and-see.
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