Restoration
MLQ3 appears dazed and confused. Perhaps at the back of his head, he was hoping Leni Robredo could pull a hat trick and emerge victorious against BBM. The opposition has been in various states of existence in a parallel reality universe during the campaign period. It was like an alcoholic who would slip back to drinking then suddenly go cold-turkey sober. In between, there was incoherent babble.
Today, it is a post-mortem cum praise for Robredo and insult for the administration coalition of Marcos, Arroyo and Duterte.
What had to give were the institutions that had emerged in 1987 with the establishment of our Fifth Republic. The unique, nine-year Arroyo term, the second-longest in our history, by force of circumstances developed a kind of mission creep to slowly eliminate the institutions that had kept the political pendulum swinging. It came to power by harnessing people power, then neutering it by channeling it into a constitutional papering-over of Edsa Dos; it was blessed by the Church hierarchy and then neutralized them by means of official charity; it responded to the looming reformism of Arroyo’s successor by a comprehensive tactic of packing the bureaucracy with allies, and then she identified the right combination of reckless posturing, enthusiastic killing, and inept governance, so that Rodrigo Duterte changed the terms of engagement of the 2016 election and, then, turned the political world on its head, providing her the means to take down the last institution standing, big business and the media.
He makes it appear that GMA sabotaged the second Aquino administration through what he describes above but how? Other than the appointment of Renato Corona as Chief Justice, it is the duty of the President to fill out constitutional vacancies. How did GMA sabotage the Boy-King’s administration? If she did not win the Vice-Presidency in 1998, how could they oust Erap?
I think this is more of a subliminal defense mechansm given he was an integral part of that administration. He probably realizes how PNoy’s ineptitude and incompetence led to Duterte’s win in 2016 and the Marcos restoration in this election cycle. It is actually psychotic behavior.
When all is said and done, Leni Robredo, elected to the vice presidency in the last gasp of the 1986 Coalition, brought together a new one that clawed its way, painfully, but necessarily, precisely because it is new and comprised of the unaccustomed, to rebuilding the constituency she once had in 2016 but had lost in the intervening years. We forget that her current 14.6 million votes, though a smaller percentage than hers in 2016, is still larger than the 14.4 million she obtained six years ago. Yet, when she declared her candidacy for the presidency and through much of the campaign, she hadn’t even matched the percentage she’d had back then. What this tells us is in the closing days of this campaign, the undecided went for her; just as, in the campaign itself, she’d inspired, and presided, over a new coalition that incorporates the remnants of the 1983-1986 but much that is new, and even unaccustomed, to cohabiting with the Center.
Leni Robredo will continue to be the leader of the opposition. How they will join forces still remains to be seen. Even the leftist-militant groups are still in a state of shock. The protest action at the Comelec yesterday and the call to boycott classes by Ateneo, La Salle and UP student councils were a knee-jerk reaction. It is actually a bad case of deja vu because the last time there was this kind of call was at the Tagumpay ng Bayan rally of Cory at Luneta after the snap election. This was the launching of the civil disobedience campaign.
Robredo only mustered the same number of votes she got in 2016. This effectively confirms that she did not grow her voter base during the five years she was in office as Vice-President. This is why MLQ3 is defending her on this point. The increase, once the final count is in, is minuscule. The endorsements she got from LGU heads had mixed results but she mostly lost in the areas where command votes were guaranteed her. This is specially true in Davao Del Norte and the BARMM.
In contrast, the Marcos Restoration, aside from having muscled its way through by a bodyguard of lies, waged an intensely conservative campaign because of the unique weaknesses of its principal (too touchy to risk revealing his petulance, or his incoherence, or his lack of substance, by subjecting himself to public scrutiny too often). Its victory—historic, not least because it is claiming a majority victory last seen in our pre-martial law elections—has been marred by three things, two of them dating back to before Election Day (the Marcoses couldn’t break through a kind of electoral glass ceiling of 30-odd percent until Arroyo brokered a coalition with Duterte is one; the other is that this brokering means the Marcoses must remain vigilant about both Arroyo and the vice president, who is more her protégé than his real partner), and the third, because of the elections—the spectacular incompetence of the current Commission on Elections.
There was nothing surprising about the country knowing its fate before midnight. What was different was the pockets of stubborn voters still insisting on casting their votes, long past this time—until 2 a.m. in one instance. What ought to be a colossal mandate was immediately built on the quicksand of a brittle coalition, unfulfillable expectations, a public relations swindle, and an automated election that seemed all too much like a traditional Marcos election.
And then the insult. Marcos not breaking through the thirty-percent ceiling? If it were a one-on-one race between Marcos and Robredo, which this was basically was towards the end, why is Marcos holding on to such a huge lead now? What’s more significant is Sara having more votes than Marcos. That is a resounding confirmation of Rodrigo Duterte’s popularity.
But this is exactly what I said yesterday; even if it became a three-way race between Marcos, Duterte and Robredro, the latter would still lose. If it were a one-on-one between Marcos and Duterte, it would have gone to Duterte for the simple reason that the President continues to be popular. This in itself is an achievement because it is only Duterte who has been able to pull this off. Filipinos are actually sad to see him step down from office.
No electoral fraud took place despite the glitches encountered. It was a relatively peaceful election even in the BARMM. The opposition is still hoping the PPCRV finds evidence of fraud which they can use but this is not likely. Most foreign news outlets have called the election in favor of Marcos-Duterte. The other candidates have conceded.
Leni Robredo is still holed up in Naga. She is probably going through the five stages of grief with her daughters. It is going to be a three year vacation for her until 2025 when she can run for public office again. Assuming there is no charter change in between, Robredo is likely to run for Senator. Her promise that this would be the last time she seeks office will not hold. At this point, she is the only player the opposition has on their bench with some kind of following so the burden falls on her.
If she wants to salvage any measure of self-respect, it is time for her to concede defeat. The outgoing administration is already preparing for the transition. A comittee has been established for that purpose. The President-elect is going to be busy interviewing prospective members of his Cabinet. Who knows? She might even land a Cabinet post after the one-year ban expires. The Marcos’ have never been vindictive.
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