Can Leni Robredo beat Marcos Jr.?
When I first read an article of Richard Heydarian in the Huffington Post, I was very impressed. It was an excellent piece which summarized what was wrong with the country. However, the impression did not last that long as subsequent pieces were not up to par with the one I first read. I thought all along that he was a foreigner until I came to read of his association with Stratbase-ADR and his Ilocano-Iranian roots.
Heydarian always bases his columns on quotes or thoughts from books he has read. It is mostly about political ideology and history, statecraft and governance. It appeals to one is in the same field as he is but is alien to the average reader who just wants to know who’s who, what’s what and the possible outcome or implications of the actions.
Heydarian styles himself as a political analyst without the experience of actually running a political campaign at the national level. I doubt very much if he has gone around the country though you have good idea of his travels abroad because he always posts about these on his social media accounts. In his mind this gives him credibility. He does not have any concept of gravitas and does not put much value into this particular trait. An analyst is similar to an oracle. You need to have good political instincts and a knowledge base to be able to predict events with a certain level of accuracy.
As the 2022 campaign goes into the homestretch, he is of the opinion that Leni Robredo can again “win” over Bongbong Marcos. Never mind that Marcos is leading by 32 points in the last surveys released. Heydarian is an analyst who adheres to an ideology. In his case, it is liberal ideology. He is against populists and rightists. For him, there is nothing about being a centrist. This is why he fails as an analyst. His cognitive bias is strong. But these are the typical attributes of an intellectual milennial.
And this is precisely why this year’s election is arguably the most important democratic exercise in modern Philippine history. The two frontrunners, namely former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Vice President Leonor “Leni” Robredo, will be in an unprecedented position to radically alter the country’s political future should they win this year’s elections.
The simple translation is either the liberals get back in the driver’s seat or they lose and eventually dissolve into oblivion as Marcos-Duterte continues with what Rodrigo Duterte began in 2016. It is not only the tandem which has an agenda but also Glorial Macapagal Arroyo. It appears that GMA is bent on seeing charter change through as Speaker of the House of Representatives.
But the question is: Can Leni, a perennial underdog, once again upset the Marcosian steamroller? Dear reader, there are three important elements to keep in mind.
First of all, the Leni campaign has to move on two fronts simultaneously, namely exploiting the low-intensity yet steady fragmentation in the “UniTeam” coalition, as well as mitigating perennial divisions within the opposition camp.
The seemingly odd “RoSa” campaign, pairing Leni with presidential daughter Sara Duterte, is the clearest manifestation of fault lines within the so-called “Solid South” voting bloc in Mindanao, as well as the broader pro-administration coalition. Mindanao is clearly “solid” behind Sara, one of their own, but the same doesn’t apply to Marcos Jr., whose father’s dictatorial legacy in the southern island is, to put it mildly, checkered.
Meanwhile, a semblance of a “united opposition” is indispensable to overcome the still formidable Duterte-Marcos axis, notwithstanding internal divisions within the latter coalition. Of all alternative presidential candidates, Sen. Emmanuel “Manny” Pacquiao, who has double-digit support in his home island of Mindanao, will be key to the formation of a “team unity” for the opposition. Not only does he have great rapport with the vice president, the de facto leader of the opposition, but his base arguably overlaps more with Leni’s than Marcos Jr.’s.
Translation? Pacquiao withdraws in favor of Leni. Heydarian assumes that Pacquiao voters will become Robredo voters. It is not automatic. If Pacquiao withdraws and endorses Robredo his hard voters may opt for the others still in the race which can either be Marcos, Lacson or Domagoso.
Second, centrist candidate Francisco “Isko” Moreno Domagoso will also be crucial in determining the outcome of the race. As the top “second preference” candidate, he has the most room for improvement in the coming weeks. And since the bulk of his support base overlaps with Marcos Jr.’s, any Isko surge will automatically benefit Leni’s campaign.
Heydarian assumes Domagoso will eat into Marcos’ soft voters. But they are just a small percentage. As we have seen with the surveys since last year, Marcos has been consistent through the demographic classes from A to E. Domagoso’s base is traditionally D and E. It is more logical to say that in that demographic, it is Pacquiao, Domagoso and Robredo who are competing for the votes which are not for Marcos.
To put it bluntly, Leni can’t beat Marcos Jr. on her own. And this brings us to the final factor, namely the momentum and power of her volunteer movement, which has been rightly targeting strategic demographics, namely undecided voters and bandwagoners, who aren’t entirely tethered to the current frontrunner. Should the Leni campaign continue to mobilize large-scale “grand rallies,” and maintain its grassroots-level mobilization, she might just pull off an electoral shock yet again.
To put it bluntly also, how can Robredo overtake her rivals? This entails winning over all the votes for her rivals other than Marcos and convincing Marcos’ hard voters to shift to her. As other analysts have concluded, it is not improbable but realistically time is running out.
It is for this reason that the opposition resorted to a false-flag operation by accusing Marcos of directly having a hand in a sex video of Aika Robredo spreading online. Problem was there is no sex video. Only screenshots of links which they claim to be circa 2019 – 2020. What would Marcos gain from the sex video around that time?
Robredo now conveniently blames Marcos for all the disinformation about her when she clearly brought this on herself by being a vocal critic of the Duterte administration. The battle between pro-Robredo and the DDS on social media has been going on for five years now. No less than then Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez levied serious accusations against her for the recorded message sent to a meeting of UN drug agencies. Alvarez even called for Robredo’s impeachment. But this is all in the past now since the two have become allies.
Robredo’s campaign is making serious mistakes this late in the campaign. No less than Sen. Ping Lacson exposed that former QC Mayor Jun Simon approached and asked him to withdraw in exchange for Tito Sotto replacing Kiko Pangilinan as the running mate of the Vice-President. This was denied by the Robredo camp but Lacson would have none of it and vented his ire on Robredo with choice words. Lacson even replied to Heydarian’s tweet about the issue also with choice words for the analyst.
The Marcos campaign brushed off Robredo’s accusations as preposterous. It is indeed since Marcos does not even bother to respond to his detractor’s tirades against him. It is for the same reason he has begged off from the debates and prefers to focus on his campaign on the ground.
Marcos received the coveted endorsement of One Cebu yesterday. At this point, it is all over but the voting and the counting. Robredo’s campaign may be on its last legs with that idiotic move coming out in public accusing Marcos of being behind it. It did more damage to Robredo than Marcos. It may signify the beginning of the end of Leni Robredo’s political career.
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