The rumors have been flying left and right about what the next major political development will be with regard to the administration’s Presidential ticket. Sara Duterte withdrew her candidacy for Mayor of Davao City in favor of youngest sibling Baste yesterday. This was the first concrete sign that she is going to run for another elective post. So the logical question is, will she run for President or Vice-President?
After their “beautiful coincidence in Cebu” meeting, the supporters of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Sara have been hoping for a Marcos-Duterte ticket which would be a powerhouse judging from their polling numbers. However, the public keeps on wondering as to why the administration is in such disarray when they should have the advantage since they’re the incumbent.
My theory is cracks have developed in the administration coalition particularly with GMA who doesn’t seem to be too enthusiastic about a Marcos Presidency. Then there are what I refer to as the GMA DDS, led by Al Cusi, who have teamed up with the Davao Origs of Bong Go, Salvador Medialdea and Sonny Dominguez, who were part of the old Ramos Davao network which supported his fledgling candidacy in 1992.
Sara would only run for President if she was allowed to form her own team and her loyalty appears to be her father’s core group of trusted aides in the persons of Jun Evasco and Peter Lavinia, both of whom were eased out of the loop by the Davao Origs. There was no way that Daughterte would allow herself to be under the control of the Davao Origs, specially not by SBG.
Since she is her father’s daughter, Daughterte made mincemeat out of PDP-Laban. No cooperation between Hugpong ng Pagbabago and PDP-Laban like in 2019. Only one Duterte is running for national office. She even made public her father’s proposal to her. She turned down all manner of compromise her father offered her. When the President declared it was going to be Sara-Go, she promptly categorically withdrew from Presidential contention and filed her Certificate of Candidacy for Mayor of Davao City.
I have written in the past about how a BBM candidacy is very divisive for 2022 which is why it would be likely that it would be a Duterte-Marcos ticket. If Marcos were to headline the ticket, he would need to have PRRD as his running mate in order to ensure his not being cheated out of victory again as what happened in 2016.
But as the deadline for substitution approaches, we now find the specter of a Duterte and a Marcos both running for President a possibility. Such is the power dynamics of politics and business in the Philippines. If both will run against each other, we will see a plurality of 35% needed to win the Presidency because there will be a total of six candidates vying for the top post.
It will not be a sure win for Marcos or Duterte. It may even sway voters to an alternative if they are frustrated enough that it turns to a protest vote. It is also in this scenario that the probability of SmartMagic entering the picture becomes high.
We can only speculate the leverage that each of the power blocs in the country are angling for. But this is Philippine politics where the decision is made by the powers that be and submitted to the people to be sold to them so they can affirm it through their votes.
The top four posts in the land are President, Vice-President, Senate President and Speaker of the House of Representatives. This is not only about politics but also business interests as well. The negotiations are underway.
And so we wait with bated breath until November 15 comes. Those who are pro-administration are preoccupied with excitement at the eternal demise of the Yellowidiots who are in their death throes without them knowing it.
But there is also looming disappointment in the horizon if they are made to choose between Marcos and Duterte.
コメント