John Mangun is as pragmatic as they come. He gives it to his readers without any coating of bullshit. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, he has always put out the contrarian view; the more realistic and pragmatic analysis of the situation that takes it above the simplistic good versus bad. It is seldom you see an American critical of his government’s actions.
America’s hegemony began when it became the largest economy in the world. This was the result of the migration of Europeans from the poverty of the old world into the opportunities available in the new world. This marked the end of feudalism though it did not bring down the monarchy’s which ruled Europe yet. This is why it is true that if one wants to understand what is happening in the world today, one has to read history and those who do not are condemned to repeat it.
The comments from both the candidates and the pundits on the war in the Ukraine—“standing in admiration of the Ukrainian people’s courage to defend freedom”—would probably be much different were this not a prelude to the national election in May.
Once again, missing the historical perspective leads as always to “hysterical perspective.” Following the breakup of Yugoslavia, the Balkans disintegrated into an ethnic, religious, and tribal war as Croatia, Slovenia, and Bosnia tried to establish independent states.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato), meaning the United States, intervened with bombings all over the region, and after three years (1992-1995) over 100,000 had been killed including nearly 40,000 civilians. No one at the time talked about this spreading into “WW3” even though this war was fought in the same area as where WW1 began. Besides, the leaders of these nations had names like Franjo and Hadžihasanović and what the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia declared was “systematic rape” and “sexual enslavement” was not as emotionally satisfying as protesters calling for the removal of “Mad Vlad.”
Likewise, Nato was right there at the forefront of the “Arab Spring” in 2010-2012 helping “democratic regime change” across North Africa and the Middle East. Governments were overthrown—sometimes more than once—in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen. Nato was so effective that Yemen has been in a humanitarian crisis of biblical proportions for 10 years. About 60,000 civilians were killed but hey…it’s for “democracy.”
But 2022 has given us Ukraine, once called the most corrupt country in Europe (after Russia, of course), and now the last outpost of freedom and (again) democracy regardless of the fact that its president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has “suspended 11 political parties with links to Russia.”
That action may make sense in light of developments since the Russian invasion on February 24th. But then again on February 3, “Zelenskyy bans three opposition TV stations” for being “pro-Russian.”
The discussion of whether or not Russia was justified under any circumstances to invade Ukraine is not really material to the Philippines. The government joined the global condemnation and has offered any assistance to Ukraine refugees. That is the moral and proper action to take. War sucks for whatever reason and there is rarely any participant who is entirely “God’s chosen” or “Satan’s spawn.”
Here as in the West are those calling for the world to rise up and attack Russia, reminiscent of 200-year Holy Crusades to take back the Holy Land from Islamic rule.
Back then as now, it was undoubtedly a noble and heroic cause. But also then as now everyone is trying to profit from it. The problem is that everything is connected, which is difficult for some minds to understand.
Japan and Russia have for decades been trying to reach an agreement on a post-WW2 treaty regarding four islands—called the Kurils by Russia and the Northern Territories by Japan—held by Moscow and claimed by Tokyo. After Japan denounced Russia on Ukraine, Russia stopped the negotiations and Japan is crying “foul.” What did Japan expect? Business as usual? That is only one example.
The truth is that the war is only the beginning of the “Panic Cycle,” which began on March 16th. With nuclear Nato on one side and Nuclear Russia on the other, the panic is understandable. However, the US is not going to shoot first and Russia would only “go nuclear” if invaded and that is not going to happen. Ukraine is not worth it any more than Bosnia or North Africa.
The US will talk big and Russia will easily handle the economic sanctions, most of which have been in place since it seized Crimea in 2014.
However, President Duterte clearly understands the reality even if others do not. He was quoted as saying on the crisis: “It will end only if Putin wants it or if he is taken out.” As of now, neither of those alternatives is on the table. We can only wait and watch.
One can only remember how Ferdinand Marcos was one of America’s favorites in the region along with Suharto and Lee Kuan Yew at the height of the Cold War for their unflinching stand against communism. The US used its military bases in the country as the staging area for the coup it backed against Sukarno which was led by Suharto during Marcos’ first term. The US backed coup in Indonesia resulted in the death of between 500,000 – 1,000,000 supporters and sympathizers of the PKI, the Indonesian communist party. This pales in comparison with the number of dead and detained during the Marcos martial law period from 1972 – 1981.
Of course, mainstream media in the country will not reveal this to the younger generation of Filipinos as they want these voters to believe that Apo Lakay was evil personified.
Marcos’ cardinal sins against the Americans was the non-extension of parity rights in 1973 and the shortening of the military bases agreement from 99 years to 25 years. It was for this reason that the US put into play the basis for the ouster of Marcos in 1983 with the assassination of Benigno Aquino Jr.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not as simple as the good versus bad dynamic that it is being played out to be. Eastern Europe has always been the powder keg of Europe. It is where the most wars have been fought throughout its history.
We should all be wary of American interference in the 2022 election. The US does not want another Marcos to become President specially at this crucial point in time when it is caught between a rock and hard place trying to control both Russia and China.
What is more embarrassing for the Americans is the return to power of a family it ousted and vilified before a global audience. The Marcos’ are considered to be political pariahs. Their return to power would be a slap on the face of America. We can never be too complacent about US efforts to thwart the will of the Filipino people.
Bongbong Marcos’ language to the US bears no hostility and the message he is sending is he bears no ill-will about the events of 1983 to 1986 where his family was targeted. This is proof that the interests of the country and his countrymen are takes precedence over that of his family’s. But this is no guarantee that the US will be of the same opinion about Marcos.
They have done this before. They can do it again. Which is why we should be always vigilant going into the May election and ensure that it is our will which prevails.
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