Pia Hontiveros just had to get out of the shadows of Ces Orena Drilon and Korina Sanchez at ABS-CBN then so she went out and joined the then fledgling Solar Entertainment, which operated RPN-9. She’s a much better host and anchor than her two colleagues at her previous network, even if you throw in the latest ABS-CBN favorite, Karen Davila. She’s also nothing like her sister, Sen. Risa Hontiveros, but that’s another story in itself. Pia is also objective so unlike the up and coming Christian Esguerra who recently got a very public thrashing from Atty. George Briones, General Counsel of the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas.
When you have two veteran political strategists as guests on your show, thirty minutes is more than enough to drive the message home. As you can see, both were direct to the point. Ronnie Puno emphasized on the experience of Lacson-Sotto, while Ms. Malou Tiquia, pointed out Sen. Bong Go’s inexperience, in his bid for the Presidency. “Ipagpapatuloy ko ang nasimulan ni Pangulong Duterte” isn’t going to cut it given the challenges the country and the next President faces.
A lot of you are going to disagree with the title of this article. Lacson-Sotto? Both BBM and Daughterte are polling in the mid-50s. What makes you think Lacson-Sotto stands a chance against them come May 2022?
If you watched the whole program, it’s been made clear by former Sec. Ronnie Puno and Ms. Tiquia. The latter always emphasizes that each election cycle is different from the last one and a political campaign is more of a marathon than a sprint. A lot of things can happen between now and May 2022.
Puno was the campaign manager of Fidel Ramos in the 1992 election. This was the first Presidential election cycle post-Marcos, which had a record number of candidates gunning for the top post. The equity of the incumbent was given to then House Speaker Ramon Mitra, who built the LDP from the ground up and controlled the House of Representatives. Mitra was also backed by Lucio Tan which meant he didn’t have problems with campaign funds but he was also up against close friend Danding Cojuangco who also had a sizable war chest.
Ramos bolted the LDP, which he joined earlier, after it selected Mitra as its standard-bearer in a convention. With only Joe De Venecia in tow, the two founded the Partido Lakas-Tao, which later on became Lakas. They were derided then as being “lakas-tama” in a reference to Ramos’ audacity in going up against an established traditional politician like Mitra, who had backing of a well-organized national political party and the campaign funding to boot. But unlike Mitra, Ramos had the endorsement of then President Corazon Aquino going for him. This meant Ramos had access to government resources as he was the anointed candidate.
Ramos went on to win the Presidency in 1992 with only 23% of the vote. He beat Miriam Defensor Santiago and Eduardo Cojuangco, Jr., the latter being the principal candidate of the Marcos loyalists with the party machinery he assembled which was culled from the core of the old Nacionalista Party and the KBL, that became the Nationalist People’s Coalition or NPC.
Today, the NPC is in a coalition with the Partido Reporma, founded by former AFP Chief of Staff and Defense Secretary Renato De Villa, and the National Unity Party, which evolved out of the Lakas-NUCD of old after a disagreement over certain policy issues. The coalition is the best organized political entity for the 2022 election boasting of a complete Senatorial slate, some of whom have been adopted by other Presidential candidates, the forging alliances with other regional and local party’s throughout the country, which gives them the edge in ground machinery.
Ms. Tiquia described the Lacson-Sotto tandem as a dark horse because of their track record and government experience which gives them the added advantage of being ready to govern on Day One should they win on May 2022. They were the first to declare their candidacies, the first to come up with a detailed governance platform and the first to innovate with a hybrid campaign style which allows them to interact with voters in a manner which is safe for all participants in the present environment.
Contrast this with the BBM-Daughterte ticket which went through a convoluted process before it was finally forged. Marcos filed for President under the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas, a nascent political party organized only in 2018. Why he didn’t file under the Nacionalista Party of former Sen. Manny Villar, which he ran under in 2010 and 2016 has never been disclosed.
Puno pointed out that a Presidential anointment does not guarantee victory as in the case of FVR in 1998, when his designated successor, Speaker Jose De Venecia, lost to then Vice-President Joseph Estrada miserably. Erap’s victory was foregone conclusion, further solidified by the coalition he formed, to cement it.
The same is true with President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in 2010.Gilbert Teodoro didn’t fare well despite being the administration candidate. His cousin, Benigno Aquino III, won the Presidency. The same fate was to befall Aquino, as Mar Roxas lost to Rodrigo Duterte in 2016. Dutere’s rise to power was more dramatic because he was the first candidate who hadn’t taken the usual route to win as President and the first from Mindanao to do so.
The DDS were under the impression that it was going to be a Duterte-Marcos ticket in 2022 for the administration. Daughterte was the campaign manager of Hugpong ng Pagbabago in the 2019 midterm election. Political pundits saw it as a test of the public’s reception of the Presidential daughter. Luzon voters are generally wary of candidates from Visayas and Mindanao who share common dialect and ethnicity. Such is the tribal nature of Filipinos. The link below shows the areas where Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates won in 2016.
This was a five-way race turned into a four-way race later on as it became obvious that Miriam Defensor Santiago was still seriously ill despite her claim that she had recovered from her bout with cancer.
During the debate series, Duterte emerged as the winner in the first debate and continued with the momentum he built up running roughsod over Roxas, Binay and Poe. He had only kind words for Miriam Defensor Santiago out of his respect for her stature and achievements, which Santiago responded to in kind.
This will likely be repeated again in this election cycle given the limitations on the traditional campaign brought about by the pandemic. The voters will make their decisions as the debate series progresses. It wouldn’t be outlandish to claim that it will become a race between Lacson-Sotto and BBM-Daughterte because they’re the most organized and best prepared among the tickets in this electoral contest as compared to the campaigns of Leni Robredo, Isko Moreno and Manny Pacquiao.
There is also the matter of coalition partners and local alliances. Lacson-Sotto has the combined backing of the NPC-Reporma-NUP-UNA. Marcos-Daughterte has the combined PFP-Lakas-HNP-PMP coalition behind them. Any national campaign needs to have a solid ground machinery for use on election day to bring out the vote and secure it against possible fraud. The local and other regional party’s haven’t made their final decisions known as they usually wait to do so after a trend has been established in order not to get caught on the wrong side of the political fence. This will most likely be in April 2022.
The Lacson-Sotto campaign has stuck to their campaign playbook methodically, true to Sen. Lacson’s management style. He has admitted to being a “boring” candidate but while he may be boring to voters, he definitely walks his talk about running an “issues-based” campaign without black propaganda and mudslinging. He made a categorical statemetn about why he rejected Leni Robredo’s second overture at “unification” as due to her continued lack of commitment to a structure which could be operationalized at a moment’s notice when the benchmark for the same has been reached.
The same is true with Marcos-Daughterte as the Marcos campaign headquarters is housed in a five-storey building teeming with activities on a daily basis. Their campaign is behind Lacson-Sotto in terms of a governance platform and a Senatorial slate. It remains to be seen if the slate will still materialize given the dearth of candidates. The PDP-Laban-PDDS coalition is still holding out against Marcos-Daughterte as it still seems to be that the administration is neither here nor there in terms of the ticket it is fielding for May 2022.
Reports are rife that Sen. Bong Go will be withdrawing from the Presidential race. This has been the tone of his public statements this past week. It could well be there are negotiations ongoing between the two camps to forge a single ticket which will have the President’s blessings and one which he will campaign for since he filed his certificate of candidacy for Senator under the PDDS.
While the sentimental favorite may be Marcos-Daughterte at this point, it cannot be discounted that this could still change at a crucial juncture in the campaign, specially after the official campaign period begins in February 2022 when all prohibitions will be in force. All candidates are taking advantage of this time when they are free to do whatever they want within the bounds of law, in the absence of any prohibition against premature campaigning.
If this were a boxing match, the tale of the tape in terms of track record and experience would be in Lacson-Sotto’s favor against the relative youth and popularity of the Marcos-Daughterte ticket. But in a pandemic environment where the only certainty is uncertainty, voters could opt for the tandem with the track record and experience to boot, which is why Lacson-Sotto is not only the dark horse but also the underdog as well.
The debates provide the perfect opportunity for voters to be informed of each of the tandem’s governance platform and plans of action. This would showcase the candidates abilities and maturity in responding to the serious problems the country and its citizens face in the context of the pandemic environment and the disruption it has caused in all aspects of life.
What is certain at this point, is the race is far from over. The voters still haven’t made their final decision and that will wait until April 2022.
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