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Kalayaan, Ayungin and Recto – The Foreign Policy Headache of the Next President

The Philippines-China South China Sea disputes show no signs of abating as the latest incident in the Ayungin Shoal indicates that China is becoming more aggressive in enforcing its territorial claims in the South China Sea as it enforces an air defense identification and maritime restriction zone in the contested territories.

This was manifested during the visit of Presidential candidate Sen. Ping Lacson to Kalayaan Island over the weekend. The plane carrying Lacson’s party was given a warning to stay away from the area and their smartphones received an SMS inidicating Chinese telco cellular coverage in the area through the availability of international roaming services.

Lacson made the trip to the remotest territory of the country after reports from the AFP confirmed that Chinese Coast Guard vessels water-cannoned a Philippine Navy supply vessel bound to the BRP Sierra Madre, a former PN LST, which serves as the detachment on Ayungin Shoal, after it was run aground in 1999 in response to China’s construction of “fishermen’s safe havens” on Mischief Reef.

The latest incident led the US State Department to issue a tersely-worded statement saying that the US stands ready to honor its commitment to the Philippines under the Mutual Defense Treaty between the two countries. Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr., also fired off a diplomatic protest to the Chinese Embassy in the country.

China’s increasing belligerency in the South China Sea may be attribtuted to two recent US actions; the AUKUS agreement between the US, the UK and Australia, which allows for the trasnfer of technology for Australia to produce nuclear-powered submarines capable of staying underwater for a longer period of time and equipped with nuclear-tipped warheads, and the exclusion of Myanmar from the recent annual ASEAN Summit, which was attributed to as the US exerting diplomatic pressure on key ASEAN members to do the same against the military junta which mounted a coup and took over the National Unity Government of Au Sang Suu Kyi.

As the ASEAN-China Summit was held today, President Rodrigo Duterte also issued a statement calling on China to adhere to the agreed upon framework of the finalization of a code of conduct in the South China Sea among the claimant countries and to adhere to the international rule of law. ASEAN member countries have been put in a bind as a result of China’s status as the dominant regional economic and military power.

Other Presidential candidates have only paid lip service to the issue of the South China Sea dispute. It is only Lacson which has stepped up to the plate, even if largely symbolic, to assert to the public why it should be an election issue given that there is much at stake in terms of the fishing grounds within the Kalayaan Island group, including the vast oil and gas deposits at the Recto Bank under Service Contract No. 72, awarded by the Department of Energy to Forum Energy.

Vice-President Leni Robredo only made a show of the “meeting” she held with retired officers of the AFP to discuss the matter and obtain their inputs. It was actually surreal seeing Robredo, with her running mate, Sen. Kiko Pangilinan seated beside her, meet with the retired officers in a setting showing her to be in-charge during a crisis situation, eerily similar to what one sees in movies where the US President is called to the Situation Room.

Voters should be made aware of the seriousness of the issue of the South China Sea dispute considering that the country has a pressing need for additional food and energy sources to achieve food and energy security in the coming years. The useful life of the Malampaya gas field will only last until 2024 and it is imperative that a new liquefied natural gas source is found to supply the power plants in Batangas which runs on this type of fuel.

Other Presidential candidates have been focusing on their campaigns and haven’t laid out their governance platforms to the public. It remains to be seen when the Marcos-Duterte ticket will make known their governance platform. They were in Davao Del Norte over the weekend as part of a national unity caravan held throughout the country.

What is evident is the clear and present danger posed by China in the West Philippine Sea which requires a strong and capable President to lead the country through the negotations with only the best interest of Filipinos in mind.

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