[Newsstand] The challenge of the Leni campaign: Managing a movement
Those who support Leonor Antoinette never cease to amaze me. It’s like they’re from another planet who don’t have an idea about Philippine politics, in particular, or elections, in general. The goal is to win the most number of votes to be elected to office. Nothing about it is rocket science. Data science it is in terms of demographics, issues, history, social and cultural norms and family ties but that’s about it.
It doesn’t need to be as intellectual as John Nery approaches it because majority of the voters are from the D and E economic brackets. You win the majority by a combination of winning in each bracket and age demographic based on voter perception of charisma, communication, messaging and voter connection.
Nery takes it up several notches higher which leaves his readers barely understanding his point because his mindset is fixated on Western concepts just like his other contemporary in the oppostion, Manolo Lopez.
The short of it is Robredo isn’t getting anywhere because of her positioning. If only she were a fiscalizer instead of an outright critic who is always on the case of the government she is a part of as the country’s second-highest official then maybe she would’ve been more popular with voters. But as it is, it didn’t take too long for her bite the hand that fed her after the President gave her a Cabinet post. What’s worse is she didn’t do her job. She’s no different from Noynoy Aquino or Mar Roxas who were both too lazy to actually do their jobs. She got the same kind of training from her husband, Jesse, who was also the product of imaging and packaging.
Proof you say? Just look at where Naga is under their watch? It isn’t as progressive as Davao or even Laoag, for that matter.
Bottomline, Leonor Antoinette is a moron and so are those who compose her think-tank. We don’t need to go into the details anymore because you know it too well.
Kalayaan sa Covid. Hadouken. Kame wave. The preponderance of evidence of their stupidity is laid bare for all the voters to see. You’d be a moron to support Robredo which is basically what the 18 -20% of her supporters are, most of which are from the ABC, and not the D and E laylayan she claims as her constituency.
The candidacy, both as movement and as campaign, must faithfully reflect the candidate.
But wait. John Nery is not done yet. There is a companion piece to the above which focuses on the “campaign” of the “movement.”
The challenge of the Leni movement: working with the campaign
Something that volunteer campaign organizer Aurelio Servando of the Robredo People’s Council in Iloilo said in the November 24 episode of On the Campaign Trail struck me as revelatory. He set it up by talking about the efforts of his network of groups to convince Vice President Leni Robredo to run for president. “We [had] been pushing her to provide that kind of change and in talks with her we were virtually imploring her, begging her, to give us hope she will run.”
We’ve had genuine presidential drafts before: Noynoy Aquino in 2010, and to a lesser extent, Rody Duterte in 2016 ran for president, in part, because a vocal public vigorously encouraged them to. Robredo too was drafted to run; that’s what “imploring her, begging her” refers to, and that’s why #LetLeniLead is the hashtag that clicked.
Really? Robredo was drafted like Duterte? I don’t think so. The way I heard the story from a Naga insider, there’s more than meets they eye when it comes to Jesse Robredo’s “accident.” It had something to do with Jesse’s plans for 2013 and 2016 and his DILG post. This was why PNoy appointed Rico Puno as Undersecretary upon the prodding of Jojo Ochoa. Jesse was Balay while Puno was Samar.
Don’t think for a moment that Leonor Antoinette is a saint. She’s definitely not beyond scheming.
“This battle is not only until May of 2022 but it could be until 2028 or even beyond because of course now that we succeeded in convincing Leni to run, we have to make sure that she has everything she needs to be able to run the government, the country, well. We need to shield her from the bad and corrupt elements that may still be around…. This could be our last chance for our country to turn it around, to strengthen our institutions…. And she can’t do it alone. We have to continue to sacrifice for the country from here on, not just for the elections.”
This helps explain why the Robredo candidacy is more than just a draft. In our country’s experience, a draft may start with contributions from true believers, but it always gives way to the political professionals and the professional donors. Giving Robredo the assurance that “she has everything she needs to be able to run the country well” and that her volunteers were ready to “continue to sacrifice for the country from here on” is a clear signal that, right from the start, the seeds of a genuine political movement were already part of her candidacy – and the fact that this was a possibility only with her was part of her appeal.
Leave it to morons to turn a simple campaign into a movement. Even as a strategy, it fails, taken in the context of Philippine politics. This is what happens when you have a bunch of know-it-all, narcissistic amateurs making up your campaign brain trust.
A genuine movement must think beyond elections, and influential volunteers like Servando have already been thinking about the role of the movement in governance. “That has already crossed our minds several times,” he said. But precisely because 2022 “could be our last chance,” the movement must also do all it can to win the presidency – still and by far the most powerful office in government – in 2022. What must the movement do then – and how should it work with, how should it relate to, the campaign?
The tempests in the last few weeks that have roiled both the Robredo movement and the Robredo campaign may be understood as a continuing argument over narrative. What is THE story? Columnist Manolo Quezon’s assertion that Robredo has failed to define herself pained many of her supporters. How should the story be framed? Miyako Isabel’s suggestions, in sum, call for a “louder” Robredo. And how should the framing of the story be spread to the world? The advertising executive who I presume is behind the What a Waste of Ad Money (“wawam”) Twitter account insists that billboards should carry more than just the names, the brands, of Robredo and her running mate, Senator Kiko Pangilinan.
They all have a point. But.
Quezon’s conclusion that Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has successfully claimed the mantle of change at this point in the election cycle is, it must be said, accurate. But his reasoning – “He did so, by means of his ad” – is way off the mark. Junior is where he is today largely because of two factors: the many years the Marcoses have invested in gray and black operations in digital and social media, and the effective rehabilitation of the Marcoses by and under President Duterte. This is not to say that Junior’s windmills ad is not effective propaganda; it is, because the ground has been so assiduously prepared.
Assiduously prepared? The Marcos’ have had to start from zero after their return from exile. It was Imelda who tested the political waters first before Bongbong and Imee jumped backed into it. Then, till now, they didn’t have the advantage of the old KBL machinery which was taken over by Danding Cojuangco in 1992. The Marcos’ relied on their political brand. Proof? Marcos is running under Partido Federal ng Pilipinas. When he ran for Senator, it was under the Nacionalistas of Manny Villar. The same is true with Imee.
Miyako’s critical diagnosis of Robredo’s media and communications strategy received a grateful acknowledgment from Robredo herself. I have heard the same criticism, but usually without Miyako’s surpassing self-assurance: Even former Duterte voters who are fully intending to vote for Robredo have said to me that she is clearly the right choice – but they wish she had a tougher image.
The December 2021 Pulse Asia results are an opportunity for both the movement and the campaign to take stock; Robredo’s jump is bracing, but Marcos Junior’s leap is even more impressive. How does this impact on narrative?
The movement must recognize that it is the responsibility of the campaign to define and develop the candidate’s story and image; at the same time, the campaign must continue to acknowledge that the best part of that story and that image is precisely that which the movement’s thousands of volunteers respond to: authentic (and effective) servant leadership. The challenge is to persuade the still-unconverted that service is in truth tough, brave, hard, loud.
Candidate and candidacy must faithfully reflect the hopes of both the true believers and the still-to-be-converted.
Think about how Robredo can win if she has morons like Nery, Quezon and Miyako Izabel in her camp? As “journalists,” Nery and Quezon still can’t seem to get their fingers on the key realities of Philippine politics because they’re perched way up high in their ivory towers or hunkered down deep in their silos. I have no clue as to Izabel’s background, but I would think that he/she wouldn’t have any credibility if he/she doesn’t have the experience of working or being a part of a national candidate’s campaign. But if you go over his/her past tweets, there is no suggestion of substance.
For example, the #kakampinks should preach radical love but also attack Robredo’s rivals through another entity similar to The Lincoln Project. This would probably work if political ideology is well-defined in the country like the United States where conservatives and liberals are as poles apart as water and oil. But seriously? In the Philippines? Does he/she even know who Steve Schmidt is who founded The Lincoln Project? What’s it going to be named? The Quezon Project?
There is also no secret to why Bongbong Marcos is leading the surveys. The opposition is his best campaign team. The more they vilify him and his family, the more he is the underdog and we, at least we who are sane, know how much Pinoys love underdogs. This is why Duterte won in 2016.
As titular head of the opposition after 2016, Robredo could’ve played ball with the administration just like Binay did with PNoy. A responsible opposition should assume the role of fiscalizer of the administration in the general pursuit of nation-building. But leave it to the opposition to be deaf to the Filipino’s sentiments. Duterte pleaded for unity but they again chose to run the old playbook of vilification and ouster. They didn’t learn from their experience with GMA who consolidated political, military and police support to prevent her ouster from the Presidency. Even Cory couldn’t get her out office despite her efforts to do so.
Even if Robredo chose to cooperate with Duterte, I doubt if the result would’ve been different. She is notorious for her adherence to the “fake it until you make it” mindset. There is no ounce of sincerity in her body. This is why five years into her term as Vice-President, with all the media mileage she has been given, there is no marked improvement in her approval and trust ratings.
You’re free to choose your pejorative for Leonor Antoinette and her ilk. Moron. Stupid. Dumbass. Jackass. Dumb. Idiot.
Any hope of victory in May 2022 is only a figment of their collective imagination.
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