‘Solid South’: BBM’s winning formula?
Towards the last week of January, prior to the start of the official campaign period for the May 2022 election, we have been subjected to Presidential “job interviews” left and right. This wasn’t the case in 2016 as that was a normal time and there was no pandemic ravaging the world. But we live in different and interesting times now.
Richard Heydarian again offers his analysis. Fortunately, it’s not laced with quotes from famous philosophers and political writers as is the usual case with his columns. He posits that it is Sara Duterte, running as BBM’s Vice-President, is what catapulted Marcos to the top of the surveys. The same is also true for Daughterte.
But as we have seen from the Presidential job interviews, by and large, it is really Ping Lacson who is prepared and qualified for the Presidency in terms of competencies and experience. Marcos only comes in second. Languishing in third place would be the loser’s triumvirate of Leni Robredo, Isko Moreno and Manny Pacquiao, in the order of their respective qualifications, competencies and intellectual capabilities for the Presidency.
As I have been stating consistently, come the Comelec-sponsored debate series, the voting public should have a change of mindset and realize that the 2022 Presidential race is a choice between Lacson and Marcos. Both are the only candidates who have shunned black propaganda and mudslinging as opposed to the other three who have been busy lashing out either at each other or the the two other candidates whom they perceive to be the serious threats to their candidacy.
The only other unknown factor is the Presidential endorsement. Duterte is without an anointed successor and a Senatorial slate he can campaign for come February 8. It will not be unlike the 2019 midterm election when he had two competing slates; one under the wing of PDP-Laban and the other under Hugpong ng Pagbabago.
The succession plan of the President encountered a major mishap because of infighting between his loyal aide and children, led by his eldest, the implacable and strong-willed Inday Sara. It’s obvious now why Duterte did not have kind words for Bongbong Marcos’ Presidential candidacy. By his estimation, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is no Ferdinand Marcos Sr. His succession plan hinged on Daughterte winning the Presidency and being under his wing. Think of it as on-the-job training under the immediate predecessor.
The problem was, Daughterte would have none of this if it involved Bong Go as her running mate. The loyal aide had become too big for his britches. He had become a power base on his own at the prodding of some Palace factototums and Alan Peter Cayetano, who is the failed Rasputin of the Duterte administration. These are all water under the bridge now because the die has been cast in stone or is there still a chance that Duterte would have his way and see Daughterte emerge as President?
At this point, the President has limited options. It is made more difficult by the fact that the Yellows from the Samar group have come out the woodwork in the Ping Lacson campaign. The same is true for the Balay group in the Leni Robredo campaign who publicly endorsed her the other day. This includes the recalcitrant Mar Roxas, who initially threw his support behind Isko Moreno. But seeing as how both Isko and his campaign manager, the “vaunted” Lito Banayo, not being able to generate any momentum from the time Isko declared last year, up to the present, Roxas must have felt that it was better to cast his lot with Robredo than Moreno and see if Robredo can pull out another rabbit out of her hat even without the help of Andy Bautista.
It would be next to impossible that Duterte will endorse Lacson at this point. It is still possible with Moreno but the problem with Isko is he is no Rodrigo Duterte no matter how hard he tries. Not even if a good script was written for him could Isko act out the role and deliver an award-winning performance in the six years that he has to play the role. The other drawback is Aksyon Demokratiko isn’t exactly aligned with Duterte’s ideological leaning. It is really trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. It is not likely to happen as well.
It remains to be seen what other cards Duterte has up his sleeve. There can’t be that many left. Probably two at the most. But the real loser is the voting public again because they will not have the privilege of choosing their candidates on the basis of real platforms with action plans but only on the basis of who will not allow a return to power for the Yellows.
The only candidate who meets that requirement is Bongbong Marcos. A Marcos Presidency will not be smooth-sailing, not by any measure of the imagination, even if Marcos-Duterte obtains a majority of votes. The opposition will surely be there to make a second Marcos administration a living hell for BBM. There will also be repercussions on the economy as businessmen, particularly those whom the Marcos’ entrusted their holdings to before, but chose to abscond with them thinking the Marcos’ wouldn’t be able to return to power and cut a deal with the PCGG, would also side with the opposition in trying to ensure that their ownership is not taken away from them in a second Marcos administration.
This is why Duterte is not too keen on a Marcos Presidency. His foresight tells him that while it gives the Marcos the vindication they seek, it also puts the country in an unstable situation because the negative perception of them won’t simply go away even if BBM is elected President.
You have to really think hard about what is the cause behind the political dysfunction of Filipinos. Why there are politicians who are stuck with the Yellow narrative even if they proclaim they are pro-PH. It is hard to believe that they can’t see the writing on the wall or the temperature of the public towards thirty years of Yellow rule.
What is certain is the greater majority of the Filipinos will not allow a return to power of Robredo and her ilk. The same is true with Duterte because he is fully aware of its far reaching consequences.
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