As expected, the surveys dropped. First was SWS showing Marcos with 50% voting preference. Next was Pulse Asia which had him even higher at 60%. Woe to his rivals who were left scratching their heads again about what to do with what appears to be a Marcos-Duterte juggernaut coming straight at them.
Of course, none of them are willing to acknowledge the possibility that the campaign was over just as it started. A short review of the standings is in order and we’ll go by their survey ranking.
Robredo is projecting that her campaign is a people’s movement. Let’s give her the benefit of the doubt even if her survey numbers over the past five years do not show much improvement, even with SWS and Pulse Asia, both of which are identified with the opposition.
The leftist-militant groups will bring in the crowds but whether they are voting for Robredo is another question altogether. Robredo is stuck with her Senatorial slate. Most of her guest candidates from the NPC have bolted over to Marcos. Those who are still in the running are only Binay and Gordon. Her organic slate does not stand much of winning except for Risa Hontiveros. God forbid she wins another term.
Isko is either second or third, depending on which survey. Lito Banayo is trying to move the needle by openly campaigning for his principal. Mar Roxas has backed out and given his support to Robredo. Alan Cayetano’s group is supporting Isko which is why his brother Lino and Senatorial candidate John Castricciones made an appearance at Isko’s proclamation rally. They are hoping for a Presidential endorsement but none is likely forthcoming. The Palace cabal led by Sen. Bong Go cannot likely swing Duterte to endorse Isko simply because he is not worthy. But Banayo makes it appear that Isko can make a come-from-behind victory possible between now and May.
Banayo’s likely strategy is to present Isko as the better alternative between Marcos and Robredo. This was first claimed by the Lacson-Sotto camp but the lack of messaging discipline has lead to messaging hell using a shotgun approach to determine what sticks. It remains to be seen what the latest strategy of Banayo will amount to as Isko has the tendency to go off-script and his penchant for forcing the English language on himself results in his hardly being undestandable. But Banayo is undeterred because he is of the opinion that Isko topping the Pulse Asia survey in terms of the first choice among the second choice of voters if their original candidate is unable to complete the race is giving him hope that these voters can be persuaded to switch to Isko.
Pac-Man’s campaign has been hit with rumors that he is withdrawing from the race and endorsing his rival. This has been denied by himself yesterday. The truth is, only divine intervention can save Pacquiao from himself, Koko Pimentel and Ronwald Munsayac. This is not a likely possibility either as the good Lord usually grants petitions which are reasonable. What Pac-Man is asking of God borders on the unreasonable.
Ping Lacson’s campaign suffered a proclamation rally blow with the defection of the NPC Senatorial candidates to the Marcos camp. Even Gringo Honasan, who is part of the administration ticket has bolted. The latest is Gordon and Binay have also been officially dropped. Unofficially, if the Lacson criteria of non-endorsement of rivals is applied, the Lacson-Sotto tandem would be down to only four organic Senatorial bets; Monsour Del Rosario, Minguita Padilla, Manny Pinol and Guillermo Eleazar.
Lacson blew a golden opportunity to position himself as the most serious challenger to BBM when he picked PNoy as his most admired President in answer to the question asked by Jessica Soho. He followed this up with a tweet greeting PNoy on his birthday on February 8. We have no clue what goes on in the Senator’s head but if it is not clear to him that public sentiment is not in favor of the Aquino’s then it is a shame because objectively, he is the most competent and qualified for the Presidency. Lacson should have his political instincts honed by now since he has been at it since 2001. Apparently this is not the case and he will still go by his instinct as a soldier. Not good for him as reflected in the survey numbers. There is nothing wrong with taking a principled stand against the administration but throwing brickbats at the President also cost him the opportunity of being endorsed as his successor. All the media hype on the “Pharmally Scandal” has gone for naught as not even a majority of the Senators have signed the “partial report” of the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee chaired by Dick Gordon.
The biggest news was the “boycott” of Marcos’ rivals of the SMNI Presidential Debate scheduled today at the Okada Hotel. This came on the heels of the Marcos-Duterte campaign announcement that their candidates will not be attending the CNN Presidential and Vice-Presidential debates due to “scheduling conflicts.”
Marcos was heavily criticized for his declining to attend the Jessica Soho Presidential Interviews. His spokesperson even cited Soho’s bias against the Marcos family as the reason for the decision. But now that the shoe is on the other foot, it would appear that Marcos’ rivals are not inclined to give him the privilege of cherry-picking his debate appearances and they be subject to his whims. The SMNI Debate has now been turned into a three-way contest between Marcos, Leody De Guzman and Ernie Abella.
The battle lines among media companies have been clearly drawn as objectivity has been thrown out the window. Aside from the administration and the opposition, certain media outfits controlled by oligarchs supporting other Presidential bets other than Marcos or Duterte have been giving more preferential coverage to their chosen ones.
SMNI’s principal, Pastor Apollo Quiboloy has been giving equal coverage to all candidates notwithstanding the fact that the latter has endorsed the Marcos-Duterte ticket. But the rivals of the leading tandem are out to make the impression on the public that the Quiboloy-owned network is biased. The same could be said when ABS-CBN was operating but of course, the rival candidates will not admit that. It is fact that in 2016, ABS-CBN’s coverage was leaning against Duterte and even aired that controversial political ad paid for by then Sen. Antonio Trillanes. Clearly, the gloves are off in this election cycle given the high stakes.
Every election is different from the last one and Halalan 2022 is turning out to be more exciting than others because it is make or break for Ferdinand Marcos Jr. thirty-six years after his family was booted out by the US-backed civil-military coup led by then Defense Minister Juan Ponce Enrile and Col. Gregorio Honasan of the Reform the Armed Forces Movement.
The three have gone full circle as Enrile has endorsed Marcos’ candidacy in his home province of Cagayan while Honasan has been adopted by Marcos in his Senatorial slate.
There is a reason why the Marcos family has not reconciled with former President Fidel Ramos. But that, as they say, is another story.
Postscript:
The SMNI Presidential Debate was successful even with only four attendees; Bongbong Marcos, Leody De Guzman, Ernie Abella and Bert Gonzales. There was no mudslinging or attacks against persons or any question related to the Marcos’ past. More on this in our next article.
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