So, the agony has ended before the 5.00 p.m. deadline for the filing of substitution of candidacies. It’s not exactly all’s well that ends well but the electoral cast is more or less complete…until the next time the President feels the urge to turn the table over again. The jury is still out on the “strategic initiatives” of the President, as it has been bruited about by his supporters on social media. PDP-Laban doesn’t have a Presidential and a Vice-Presidential candidate but it has a Senatorial slate. Being the administration party, it surely didn’t end well and will not likely be so unlesss a miracle happens.
The Presidential candidate Sen. Bong Go has announced that the President will run for Senator instead of Vice-President which avoids a direct clash with his daughter, who is the Vice-Presidential bet of Lakas-CMD and the running mate of Bongbong Marcos. It remains to be seen who SBG’s running mate will be.
The events of today are fortuitous because it was mentioned by Sen. Ping Lacson, during his interview with Karen Davila this morning, that Energy Secretary Al Cusi told Congressman Bebot Alvarez that his fear was that PDP-Laban wouldn’t have any candidates to field in the 2022 election. What basis Cusi had for saying this wasn’t revealed but it has now become a reality. At least the administration party in 2016 was able to field a full slate. This is not the case now with PDP-Laban. Even SBG isn’t running for President under PDP-Laban but with the li,ttle-known Belgica political party, PDDS.
Bongbong Marcos has to contend with the statement of the President that he can’t support his candidacy but only that of SBG. There is also no categorical statement from the President if he will support Daughterte in her Vice-Presidential bid.
The surprising news of the day came from Antonio Parlade, who substituted for Butch Valdes as Presidential candidate of the Katipunan ng Demokratikong Pilipino. Parlade claimed that he didn’t run under the administration party because of his “differences” with Sen. Bong Go. What differences Parlade didn’t elaborate.
What is evident now is there are faction fights in the administration ranks with SBG being at the center of it all. This is the usual fate of the gatekeeper and confidante. It remains to be seen what Go’s next moves will be but it’s safe to assume that he will not go down without a fight, not with the Presidential endorsement for him as the country’s next President.
It remains to be seen if the candidacy of Go will prosper given he has no running mate but has the national goverment machinery behind him. It doesn’t matter also if he loses because he goes back to being a Senator. All eyes will now be on the President as he campaigns with his Senatorial slate. Again, the President substituted for Liezl Visorde, under the PDDS also. Visorde is part of Greco Belgica’s staff at the PACC. It would appear that the PDDS had filed COCs under placeholders which media didn’t pay much attention to. This means that this move by the President and SBG was planned and wasn’t on impulse.
The latest Senatorial surveys show 8 candidates in magic 12 who could be considered as allies of the President. Marcos hasn’t made public his Senatorial slate yet but given there is a dearth of qualified and winnable candidates, it would be safe to assume that he will follow the route of other Presidentiables who have adopted candidates from the slate fielded by NPC-Reporma-NUP. However, it’s too early in the game to say that those in the winning circle now would continue to hold their positions what with the President being a Senatorial candidate himself.
The eight candidates who are in the Presidential slate are Gregorio Honasan, John Castriciones, Salvador Panelo, Greco Belgica and Mark Villar. As of now, only Villar is in the magic 12. The President would be the ninth member of the slate. It remains to be seen if there will be changes in the line-up. Harry Roque is running for Senator under PRP. There is no word yet if he will part of the Presidential slate since he has been public witih his support of Daughterte.
PDP-Laban will again die a natural death. It’s political roadkill and its carcass will have just Koko Pimentel and Ronwald Munsayac left holding the proverbial bag. It remains to be seen how long Pac-Man will continue with his madness of aspiring for an elective office which he’s not qualified for. But who knows, he might just become SBG’s running mate.
It’s interesting to note that the Comelec will have three commissioners retiring on February 2, 2022. After this, all of its commissioners would’ve been appointed by the President. As for the Supreme Court, eleven of its fourteen members have been appointed by the President. The vote counts are essential in the event the Comelec rules that there is a basis to disqualify Marcos because of moral turpitude. Marcos appeals to the Supreme Court and the result would be the same if the members toe the Presidential line.
The danger Duterte poses is not his excercise of Presidential power but his skillset in political campaigns. We have seen this in 2016 and 2019 and apparently, for 2022 as well. Duterte has vowed to campaign against Sen. Dick Gordon because of the way the Chair of the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee has turned against him. Imagine how Duteret will make good on this promise of his.
One has to note the 2022 budget hasn’t been passed yet. Senators and Congressmen, specifically those running for reelection, will need their usual “projects.” Who controls the DBM after the budget has been passed but the Executive. This gives the President much leeway with the candidates. There has never been a time in the history of elections in recent history that an outgoing President is again running for national office.
Effectively, the President is a one-man wrecking crew because he has the Presidency as a platform. His non-endorsement of BBM-Sara would have an effect on the race. He won’t need political ads because media will give him the coverage for free. This goes for his entire slate.
All of the “analysts” haven’t seen the trick the President pulled up to now. If you analyze the sequence of events leading up to November 15, you will see through it as follows;
The clarifications made came from statements made by the President in his weekly Talk to the People and others from media outlets. At this time, there was no definite sign from Daughterte that she was interested in running for President though she met with all of those who were interested in being her running mate.
Then came the more infamous statement where she didn’t mince words against her father, SBG, PDP-Laban, Koko Pimentel and Ronwald Munsayac to wit;
I don’t think the President ever wanted it to be a Duterte-Go tandem to begin with. He had been open about his not being inclined to let Daughterte run for President as it is a thankless job based on his experience. Sara would never admit to an open feud with the Davao Origs. There might not have been a feud to begin with but rather she just wanting to form her own team for her Presidential run which the President probably didn’t agree to because she wasn’t as experienced as he is in politics, specially Philippine politics.
Knowing how headstrong his daughter can be, the President found a win-win solution; not give his blessings to Inday and have her run for Davao City Mayor for her last term knowing fully well that she would be approached by the Marcos camp to be BBM’s running mate. This would be under the initiative of GMA whom Sara trusts implicitly.
One character trait of the President that most of the public don’t realize is how he never forgets a slight done to him or his family. To quote from the Rodrigo Duterte biography of Earl Parreno “Parreño describes Landring as Vicente’s mentor. He claims that Vicente “modeled himself on Landring… emulating his townmate from Danao… following the same path that Landring traveled in his quest for political power.” Vicente eventually succeeded Landring, both as provincial governor and later as Ferdinand Marcos’s secretary of the Department of General Services. But unlike Landring, Vicente did not make it to the Senate despite his aspirations. This great political alliance endured repeated national and local challenges and made both of them powerful provincial bosses. However, Landring doublecrossed his friend, cousin, and ally when he betrayed Vicente who ran and lost for his last race in the 1967 election for the newly created Congressional seat for Davao del Sur.”
It’s probable that the President holds Apo Lakay and Landing Almendras responsible for his father losing in the 1967 Congressional race for the lone district of Davao Del Sur. Notice how the Estrada/Ejercito family lost in their San Juan, Manila and even Pagasanjan bailiwicks in the 2019 midterm election. This may be the reason why the President is not inclined to pave the way for a Marcos return to Malacanan. In his book, his political debt was paid when he spent valuable political capital in finally having Marcos buried at the Libingan ng mga Bayani. One has to remember that both Duterte and GMA have reasons for not being in favor of a Marcos Presidency. Think of it this way, it’s still a Go-Duterte tandem but Sara not Rodrigo. This sets up Daughterte for a Presidential run in 2028, assuming there is no change in the form of government.
Rodrigo Duterte is not done yet. Imagine President Bong Go, Vice-President Sara Duterte, Senate President Rodrigo Duterte and Speaker of the House of Representatives Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
But this is just me. I have absolutely no fucking clue about what’s going on inside the minds of the powers that be.
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