Philippine election cycles are long. It usually begins a year before election day and is grueling, time-consuming and requires billions in pesos when you are running for a national post.
How this is the root of the vicious cycle of corruption is lost on Filipinos who have not thought of the need to reform the system in order to minimize corruption but also get the politicians to focus more on their constituencies and spur regional development. This is only possible under a federal parliamentary system.
Voters appear to be aware of the stakes in this electoral contest. Marcos continues to lead across all the economic classes. It can be said that they have come to judge not only the Marcos’ but also the opposition. 1986 – 2016 looks to be a nightmare of epic proportions in their opinion. Thirty years wasted with not much achieved. Opposition defenders will say that it is only the twelve years of Cory and Noynoy they are accountable for but that is not entirely true. They ousted Erap and replaced him with GMA. They trashed the Constitution when convenient, and used it to cite the rule of law when it was in their favor, as in the case of the appointment of Renato Corona as Chief Justice. The total is still thirty years up to 2016 when Duterte was elected President. There is no room for their fuzzy math and lame defense.
It is no different with surveys. When not favorable to them, the surveys do not have any value. They turn to Facebook Analytics and Google Trends, metrics which do not have scientific basis except for studies claiming correlation. But algorithms are not surveys. Both metrics are utilized in aid of obtaining engagement from potential consumers. They are marketing tools not measurements of individual inclinations in a political exercise.
Even the science of sociology is bastardized by the opposition. They do not understand why Marcos is leading. It is an endemic psycho-political dysfunction in their ranks when they think of themselves as being a class above the rest, intellectually and morally superior, but needing the votes of the bobotantes to regain power in an election. Never mind that they have lost miserably in the last two election cycles. This is a reality they continue to refuse to recognize.
It does not have to be true. It just needs to look like it. This continues to be their strategy with “force projection;” the “high” rally counts which again defies logic in terms of the space consumed by one attendee. There is even an OlymPinks where each locale competes with another to beat the previous rally’s attendance count.
The question is, would the rallies be well-attended if it were not for the entertainers which attract the people? The pubmats on social media look more like posters for a concert than a political gathering. It is more of a show rather than a dialogue between candidates and voters. Again, it runs true to form with Robredo’s character; all form, no substance.
Finally, there is the effort to “unite” the opposition the Leni Way. The formula is to get all the other candidates to withdraw and force a one-on-one showdown with Marcos again. This also involves dumping Kiko Pangilinan in favor of Tito Sotto.
This is part and parcel of the narrative that they think will give them credibility where they will claim electoral fraud when they lose on eleciton day. This is exactly what happened in 1986.
The truth is Robredo’s support base caps out at 25%. The withdrawal of the other candidate does not mean all of the voters will switch to her. From the looks of it, neither of the three other candidates will give in. Lacson, Domagoso and Pacquiao are in it to finish the race no matter what.
The truth is, what they are fighting for are the voters who will not vote for Marcos. BBM has the majority. As the race draws to a close, there will be last-minute switching of support at the local level. As it is, it does not look good for the Yellowidiots as they are only counting on Region 5 and 6.
But it does not look like they will be able to pull off a victory in Region 6, when you look at the local races. Robredo will probably only win in Iloilo. GMA and the Aranetas are pushing hard for Marcos to win in Negros island. It appears their efforts will be rewarded favorably.
It is now highly probable that the opposition will be buried in a deluge on May 9.
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