I had high expectations for the 2022 election. Deep inside my gut, I knew the Yellowidiots were finished no matter who candidate they ran and even if PeNoy died just before it. There wasn't going to be a repeat of 2010 when they were able to pull a rabbit out of the hat and regained the Presidency.
But there was this doubt in the pit of my stomach that Digong wasn't going to go for Marcos. Why? For one thing, he didn't bother to appoint Marcos to any post after the one-year ban expired. Marcos was left on his own to tend to his electoral protest and keep himself relevant until 2022.
Foremost in my mind was the possibility of a Duterte-Duterte ticket. Father-and-daughter pursuing their political agenda. The father mentoring the successor up close about the intricacies of politics and power.
Marcos would've still run for sure because of the solid north and the fact that if he won in Luzon, he would need to pick up votes in Visayas and Mindanao where there was a heavy concentration of Ilocanos and non-Ilocanos who were loyalists. It would've been a close race but the Duterte's had the edge because of the brand equity.
We all know how the events leading to the election turned out. Inday wanted to be her own person and stood firm about it. Her statement was basically said, Duterte and Go can go to hell and shove it up where the sun don't shine.
Thus, the most popular President in recent history wouldn't have the benefit of anointing his successor. His plan of pursuing his reform agenda for another six years fell through. In the end, Go withdrew from the Presidential race. Digong did the same with his senatorial candidacy. Apparently, the risk outweighed the reward and Duterte being the astute political animal that he is, thought best to leave it to his daughter and Marcos to win and take all.
The Marcos administration is in its eighth month but doesn't have much momentum going forward. BBM has taken on the role of number one salesman but the results can only be quantified in investment pledges and not actual investments.
We have a food crisis and a looming energy crisis this summer. The agricultural sector has unraveled. The economic managers while competent, don't have akin in the game. They couldn't even come up with a socio-economic agenda with a clear goal and the roadmap to go along with it.
Marcos' SONA delineated his policies and legislative agenda but nothing seems to be happening despite the super majority's in both houses of Congress. It has been derailed by the push for the sovereign wealth fund, which has gone nowhere in the Senate after being passed in the House.
Marcos hasn't made any gains in agriculture either. The sugar import scnadal resulted in Undersecretary Leocadio Sebastian being cleared and reappointed as the rice production czar. Marcos hasn't made any gains against the cartels which import agricultural commodities and manipulate prices. He hasn't given the problem of logistical support to farmers for the transport of their produce to the main markets. The department which he heads can't even develop an online B2B marketplace for farmers to sell their goods directly to wholesalers and retailers. This, despite the creation of a private sector advisory council which has for its members, the oligarchs who control the country's economy.
What Marcos really needs to address are energy and food security, the country's political and economic structure and the government bureaucracy, which can only be done if the Constitution is amended.
Marcos has been endowed by the Filipino people with a massive amount of political capital but he's being an Ilocano in going about expending it. He's also not as authoritative as his father when it comes to cracking down on crime and government shenanigans. He likes to please everybody which can't be the case with a real leader because he must make decisions for the greater good and not for just a sector, which is what happened with the stupid transport strike called by operators and drivers groups aligned with the leftist-liberal opposition.
Eight months into his administration and he still doesn't appear to have firm control of the government. Majority of his appointments are in an acting or OIC capacity. There is a continuing reshuffle some of those appointed earlier have been removed and replaced. This doesn't augur well for a bureaucracy that doesn't move without a head at the top.
A good example is the DOTr which has gained notoriety under Jimmy Bautista. There was the closure of the country's airspace on New Year's day, the theft and robbery at the NAIA and the confusion about the head of the MIAA being replaced by the son of Art Tugade, which was later withdrawn.
The DICT hasn't produced a digital transformation template for the government bureaucracy even if this is supposed to be a priority as delineated in the SONA. We are falling behind our regional neighbors which are well-ahead of us in this area. There is also the digital infrastructure deficit which needs to be addressed.
Then there's peace and order. Of late, several local officials have been ambushed with two being killed. The most brazen was the assassination last week of Negros Oriental Governor Roel Degamo, who was a Marcos supporter. All fingers are pointing at his political rival, the brothers Arnie and Henry Teves. It took Marcos all of four days before he showed up at Degamo's wake. Manang Imee even beat him to it.
Marcos has been reactive to this issue. He has tasked Senior Defense Undersecretary Carlito Galvez to reestablish peace and order in Negros Oriental. This should be the work of the PNP but the whole police force in the province has been replaced as there is apparently information that the provincial law enforcement officials are in the pockets of the Teves brothers. Marcos has remained mum on the ambush of the other local officials as he has not issued any directives to the PNP chief who is a month away from retirement.
In the meantime, Arnie Teves, who has been tagged as the mastermind, is out of the country. It remains to be seen if he will return to face the charges filed against him for murders allegedly committed in 2019. He has retained Ferdinand Topacio as his lawyer. Under the Constitution, Teves is guaranteed equal protection and the presumption of innocence. Marcos has held off making any statement directly related to the case. That has been left to Speaker Martin Romualdez who has been performing the role of spokesperson and special assistant to the President, which is again confusing. But again, no decisive words from the President.
Marcos committed to an independent foreign policy during the campaign. That's not the case now as clearly, he favors the US over China. No matter how much he uses the word independent, his inner circle, particularly cousin Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez, is very much pro-America.
This squarely puts the country in between China and the US. Note that again, we're the only ASEAN member which has categorically stated that we are taking a side. I'm concerned about the economic consequences of this action, given that China will likely respond in the same manner as it did during the Aquino administration.
This early, China's white ships have been spotted off Pag-Asa Island, the biggest feature we occupy in the disputed waters.
They have been "swarming" the shoals within the exclusive economic zone off Pag-Asa, including Ayungin Shoal. Tension went down during the Duterte administration but has escalated again since Marcos made the decision to align with the US.
What I'm wary of is the Chinese seizing Pag-Asa to test American response. Recall how the Americans did nothing when it seized Scarborough Shoal in 2012. Scarborough is only 150 nautical miles from Subic Bay. If China makes a play for Pag-Asa and the Americans do nothing about it, we're absolutely fucked again.
While others see the Americans as the world's peacekeeper, it's actions are for the sole purpose of maintaining American hegemony throughout the world, together with their European allies. The inflation most of the world is suffering from now is due to the US dollar being the global fiat currency, which is what Bretton Woods was all about. When the Americans couldn't back the dollar with gold, they simply collapsed the gold standard and replaced it with the dollar.
We live in very interesting times. We need a strong and decisive leader who is willing to make the tough decisions for the country and its people. Marcos doesn't seem to be up to the task. It remains to be seen if the move to amend the constitution will prosper given how the Senate is not inclined to follow the lead of the House of Representatives.
This is why this early, I've received news of certain politicos who are engaging the services of campaign management specialists not only for 2025 but 2028. The playing field is open. It's very much unlike Duterte who kept everyone, politicians and oligarchs alike, toeing the line under his watch.
Again, my criticism is not because I want Marcos to fail. I want him to succeed. It would be such a waste if he is to fall flat on his face and give the Yellowidiots an opportunity to gloat. He cannot be Noynoy 2.0.
He has to be Apo Lakay 2.0.
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