Boring is beautiful. This sums up the campaign of BBM as he and Sara make their way to Malacanang. BBM has been disciplined on messaging avoiding anything that might disrupt what has been a well oiled and fully funded operation. He has kept to over-arching and uncontestable themes like unity, happiness and progress and avoided […] BBM: Keeping His Eye On The Prize — Heneral Lunacy
Leo Alejandrino has given up on Leni Robredo and the opposition she represents. Apparently, he too is convinced that Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte are the next President and Vice-President of the Republic of the Philippines.
The question on most people’s minds now is, can Bongbong and Sara just coast to victory from now till May 9, 2022?
I don’t think so.
BBM is not a person nor an ideology. He is an aura, a political identity, a brand, a representation of a time and a legacy. History was ready, Sara stepped down and he showed up. BBM and Sara are alike in that they are undefined which makes them elusive political targets. We know their fathers, we do not know them nor what they stand for. The enigma and opaqueness works so why fix it? With her announcement of a compulsory military draft Sara is starting to drift on the messaging so she may need to be reined in.
We think we know them because of their fathers but they’re actually independent individuals with their own personalities. As of today, they haven’t defined their governance platform except for snippets. Daughterte’s mandatory military service proposal has triggered a reaction among the youth. At present, the ROTC is mandatory for senior high school students but military service is not. This is a question of priorities insofar as the youth are concerned. On the part of the government, it is a military defense versus civil defense issue. Civil defense is disaster response. What should the ROTC program be composed of? The old program was riddled with corruption with counterparts like YADO cropping up offering exemptions, in the form of non-attendance in exchange for a “donation,” to those who can afford it.
It begs the question, shouldn’t education sector reform be a priority given the drop in test scores of students? There are chinks in the armor of Marcos-Duterte which leads me to the conclusion that it is not yet in the bag for them as far as the May 2022 election goes unless voters are dead set on voting on the basis of sentimentality for their fathers.
Duterte has that disqualification card to play but he is likely to hold it until he can secure from BBM the safety of his buddies Bong Go, Cusi, Duque & Co. That conversation I imagine has already started. Sara will be opposed to any clemency for the Malacanang boys so that is a delicate discussion with BBM and Dad.
Why would there be retribution when they’re all allies? I don’t think PRRD is concerned about this. He’s more pissed off over the fact that he wanted a Sara-Go tandem but didn’t get it. What would be the options of the President now? A Marcos disqualification at the hands of Guanzon to make it appear that it was an opposition hatchet job?
This scenario involves his endorsement of another Presdential candidate. Duterte is not likely to endorse one who is unprepared. This eliminates Isko and Pac-Man and leaves Sen. Ping Lacson. The problem is while not political enemies per se, Lacson and Duterte don’t really see eye-to-eye on certain issues though a Lacson Presidency would be better in transitioning from the leftist-liberal ideology of the Yellowidiots to a milder discipline and national security focus of Lacson’s background as a law enforcer. It does help that Lacson is the only candidate with an extensive platform and track record of experience in government to boot.
The thing is, you can’t bet on this at this point even if stranger things have happened in Philippine politics in the past. The endorsement and the support of th government machinery is Duterte’s last card if he chooses to play it.
Already there is talk of what a BBM presidency will look like. There is trepidation among those who remember Martial Law. Will darkness once again return to this nation?
I am not frightened – maybe the result of six years of Duterte twilight – but admittedly somewhat uncomfortable. Times are different, we are more aware today, our free press has been shackled but replaced with an active social media. The Marcoses know the world will be watching so they will be mindful. They crave the power and the revenge on the liberals but are not as ruthless nor as politically savvy as the Dad. They may even seek to redeem the past and build back better except the family never believed they did anything wrong nor ever apologized.
Are the Marcos’ dumb enough to repeat the mistakes of the past? I don’t think so. Imelda has been humbled by her ignominious fall from the limelight plus the fact that she is in her 90s. What would give her the most joy is to stand behind her son as he takes is oath of office as President and return triumphantly to the Palace by the Pasig River which they had to abandon on February 25, 1986. The Marcos’ will not waste the golden opportunity given to them if they’re victorious on May 9, 2022.
What is more likely is the country will continue to be divided even with a majority win by Marcos. The opposition will not stop with what they have begun with Duterte. It will continue. Leni Robredo will continue to be their symbol because she is the only option available even if she’s not viable. More than likey, these efforts will intensify given there is Democrat for a US President in Joe Biden and the Philippines is a crucial piece in the chess game between the US and China in the region.
Do we need more of the same when it comes to divisiveness which is why we’re stuck in a rut and unable to move on progressively?
Malacanang will be light and fun in keeping with the personality of its prospective occupant. BBM is unlikely to do much heavy lifting and like his father will rely on technocrats to run the country. His biggest challenge will be attracting good talent who actually care, a Cesar Virata, and could end up instead with city slickers with their own ideas. GMA will offer her economic team but the family may prefer their own since they have come to distrust outsiders.
The economics will be Neo-Classical, policies centrist and Government better managed than the current one. BBM may even surprise us with a vision but expect little compassion since empathy was never a family trait. As with all new regimes the elephant in the room will be corruption, how soon, how widespread and flagrant will it be.
BBM will control the House with the traditional migration of the herd with GMA or Martin Romualdez as Speaker. The Senate is more challenging depending on the incoming members. PPRD will retain his influence in the Supreme Court so he will not be powerless.
The center of the political universe will return to Manila. Malacanang will be a collective with Liza and Imee I imagine running many of the plays, vetting the key appointments and ensuring everybody sticks to their lane.
Business will, as always, be a backdrop to the politics. The cronies of the father are mostly gone but there could be some retro-active accounting. New players will emerge from the friends and relatives but that is to be expected. Most of the lucrative opportunities have been largely taken by the established tycoons and Duterte friends so the action could be in the reshuffling and in the creation of new economic enclaves. A prominent Duterte ally is already said to be peddling his enterprises. The biggest plum remains ABS-CBN with a Marcos relative reportedly already eyeing it.
The loser, as always, will be the Filipino whose life will not change, the rich will get richer, the poor poorer. This is the tragedy of our presidential elections that the outcomes never match the promises and the hope.
FILE PHOTO: Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, son of late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, his wife, Louise (L) and his sister Imee (R) smile upon arrival at the Supreme Court in Padre Faura, Metro Manila, Philippines April 2, 2018. REUTERS/Romeo Ranoco/File Photo
If there is still top talent available who would be willing to join the government under a second Marcos administration. Gerardo Sicat is still around and he still has enough in his head to manage the economy. His son would not be at par with him but he would be a likely candidate for Secretary of Finance. But it would be best if BBM retains Karl Chua as NEDA head. Sonny Dominguez will not stay even if he’s asked to. He’s allergic to anything that is Marcos.
Continuity is the question mark. Marcos will need to have a plan in the same manner his father did before he imposed martial law. He will need to work with Congress and while the House would be more malleable under a GMA or Martin Romualdez Speakership, there is the Senate to contend with who’s most senior member with a brain between his ears, other than space, is Migz Zubiri. The problem with Migz is he doesn’t have the gravitas to become Senate President in the mold of Tito Sotto.
Liza and Imee would be the two prominent power blocs in the BBM camp. The problem here is the wife and the sister in-law don’t really see eye to eye. BBM isn’t exactly the type who can be as decisive as Apo Lakay. Then there is also Daughterte. BBM would be surrounded by three strong women. Four if you include Imelda who’s still lucid enough to weigh in. It will be interesting to see how this situation evolves if it becomes a reality.
As Sicat explained in his paper, crony capitalism is not a Marcos exclusive. It has been in existence since even the colonial and post-colonial periods. It has been in place before and there is no sign it will ever go away.
There is still enough time for Filipinos to ponder on who they will elect to be the new leader of the country. Four months is an eternity in politics. The debate series will still bring about second thoughts and changes in preferences.
In my case, I would be content if we can move on past the Aquino-Marcos narrative and focus on the Philippines narrative instead. We Filipinos make up the Philippines. We should disabuse our minds of partisan political interests and think more of what is best for us rather than what’s best for them.
We Need A Leader. Not A Leader In Need.
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