A Marcos government and the pink movement
Only in the Philippines. A phrase which became popular as the suffix to an event, social mores or characteristic which is inherent to Filipinos.
Only in the Philippines where one losing Presidential candidate does not have the civility to concede to the winner who beat her decisively and does not have respect for the decision of the majority. But such is the toxic politics of the Yellowidiots or Dilawan, whichever is a more apt pejorative for your taste.
A week after the election, the post-mortems have begun to pour in. Why did Marcos win? Why did Robredo lose? What is in store for the next six years under the Marcos adminstration? Add to this Yellowidiots suffering from post-election stress disorder. They still cannot believe they lost and have made allegations of fraud even if the election was generally peaceful with the winner being known by the following day based on the tranmission of election returns to the Comelec’s transparency server.
Last Friday the 13th, Robredo made an announcement at the Thanksgiving Rally held at the Ateneo. The “movement” behind her Presidential campaign will continue on as the Angat-Buhay NGO. An NGO is defined as “nonprofit organization that operates independently of any government, typically one whose purpose is to address a social or political issue.”
Robredo finally admits that she has been operating outside of the government which she is a part of. In 2016, the budget of the Office of the Vice-President was P500M. In 2021, it was P900M. To put it in perspective, a local city college or university can operate with an annual budget of P150M for 10,000 students.
Since the launch of Angat-Buhay, the OVP has been functioning as a donation broker between private corporations and other domestic and international NGOs for its programs for the “laylayan,” the constittuency which Robredo claims to serve. It is interesting to note that none of these programs have been scaled or institutionalized at even the LGU level. Those who have worked in government understand that the success of a program or a project is determined by its scaleability and impact.
Thus for Robredo to maintain her visibilty after June 30, she will need anywhere between P500M – P900M to fund the Angat-Buhay NGO operations.
Since Robredo decided to run for President, her campaign has been packaged as a people’s movement. Robredo People’s Councils have sprung up all over the county. They served as the campaign managers and liaison in their respective jurisdictions. Obviously, there is a perception problem because she lost. In fact, she only got roughly 500,000 votes more than she did in 2016 for 2022. This confirms what has been reflected in surveys with reference to her trust and approval ratings. It means she only appeals to her base which is the total of those who voted for her in this election cycle.
2022 was a continuity election with Duterte’s high approval and trust ratings. The minute the tandem was finalized, there was no stopping it from obtaining a majority vote which turned to a landslide or an avalanche in the end which buried Robredo.
[OPINION] Partida: Why odds were stacked against Kakampinks, and what we achieved
Leloy Claudio’s Assessment
Former presidential spokesperson Edwin Lacierda explains that it was only in the final months of 2021 that VP Leni decided to aim for the presidency. By contrast, BBM may have been planning a presidential run as early as 2010, when he became a senator and proved that the Marcoses could cultivate electoral bases outside Ilocos and Leyte. Lacierda also says that the messaging of the Leni campaign only became clear in January and that the mammoth rallies took a while to snowball. We gave it our all towards the end, but we also learned a grade school lesson the hard way: no cramming. As far as crammers go, though, we did a pretty good job.
In the span of a few months, millions rallied to the pink banner, and showed what people power could look like in this century. Think of what we could do if we spent the next six years preparing.
Just look at how stupid and moronic the opposition are. The went through the process of a convenor group, 1Sambayan, which everyone knew was going to select Robredo as the standard-bearer in the end. This was for the appearance to serve the purpose of “uniting the opposition” under one banner. It did not work. The moment they announced the names of probable candidates on their list, the same issued statements that they were not interested or do not want to be part of the process.
How can you move forward when even in your self-critique you do not accept your fault and the consequences of your actions? The excuse is conveniently provided for as well. “Think of what we could do if we spent the next six years preparing.”
This is really laughable. In 2016, the writing was on the wall. No foresight? No contingency planning? This only serves to confirm why the country suffered when they were in power, specially during the six years of the Aquino administration.
A new life for Angat Buhay
Doy Romero’s Assessment
Romero is a bit off because he confuses a parliamentary form of government with what we have at present in defining Angat-Buhay’s role, as a shadow government. In a parliamentary system, the dominant opposition party forms a shadow government as a contingency in the event of a no-confidence vote which gives them the opportunity to defeat the incumbent in an election. The shadow government is a fiscalizer of each of the counterpart ministers in the ruling coalition. This is meant to be preparation to hit the ground running should the need arise.
The second important point Romero misses out on is, how can Angat-Buhay be a fiscalizer when the opposition has been decimated in both the Senate and House of Representatives? In the Senate, it is only Koko Pimentel and Risa Hontiveros who can be considered as part of the political opposition. The others who will become members of the minority are actuall administration stalwarts as well.
In Congress, the count isi bleaker. There are only nine Liberal Party members who won in their respective districts.
As in Claudio’s argument, the operative question is why did not Robredo do anything as early as 2016 to consolidate the opposition into a united front? She was its titular head being the highest elected official of the Liberal Party. Mar Roxas would not take the reins because his mother’s checkbook was closed. There was no move on the part of PNoy either because as it turns out, he was busy wallowing over his legacy.
So how can Angat-Buhay be effective and hit the ground running the only time it can build back its political base is 2025 assuming that is still a midterm and not a transition election?
Leni and the future of the Pink Movement
Heydarian’s Assessment
Notice how not one of the three opposition propagandists have cited any data as the basis for their conclusions.
2022 Election Results
If the 2022 election was a three-way race between Marcos, Duterte and Robredo, it would have been a toss-up between Marcos and Duterte. Robredo would be a far third. The reception Inday got in Luzon in 2019 while campaigning for HNP was cold. It was the typical reception reserved for those from the south.
2016 Election Results
Dear reader: To dismiss the 2022 election results as simply the upshot of “disinformation” and “irrational” voting behavior is both intellectually lazy and morally questionable. This was less a vote for the scions of the country’s two leading political dynasties, who are integral to a rotten status quo, but instead a torrent of unmediated rage against decades of dysfunctional democracy.
Clearly, Robredo and what remains of the opposition have their work cut out for them. Heydarian got it partially right as above but this assumes that the opposition is not collectively suffering from psycho-political dysfunction.
Robredo in New York and on Facebook prior to her trip
But here’s the thing. If the opposition did not think they needed to remake themselves in order to be competitve for the 2022 election, what would drive Angat-Buhay for 2025 and beyond? The data clearly shows that their work is cut out for them in terms of winning over voters to their side. It does not help that their supporters are toxic, obnoxious and cannot relate to the D and E.
Robredo is not likely to change to adapt to the electoral environment. Despite empirical evidence that her being a critic of the Duterte administration did nothing to improve her approval and trust ratings, she continued with her efforts. It was the very definition of stupid – doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome each time.
And this is true not only for Robredo but for the rest of the opposition think-tank. You have four columnists all saying the same thing about Angat-Buhay. It is all motherhood statements bereft of any details as to how to be effective in achieving their goal.
Based on the data and the actuations of Robredo, we cannot expect much of Angat-Buhay. The opposition and their cohorts will still employ the same tactics. Their first priority will be funding but that will not be a problem because there are plenty of willing contributors in the campaign against populists and authoritarians. Just look at the billions of dollars the US is pouring into Ukraine to force regime-change in Russia.
But for the meantime, we have the alternative reality show The Robredos that is now airing on social media. There is the entertainment value of watching them turning the definition of stupid into reality.
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