MLQ3 reads the political tea leaves a bit incorrectly. It is not that Duterte was not able to form an administration coalition but more so that he was thwarted by his inner circle of Davao Origs led by Bong Go and Bingbong Medialdea, in cahoots with Alan Peter Cayetano.
The Duterte-Cayetano dynamic is one that defies explanation; no one can come up with a credible theory even. It is very similar to that of Danding Cojuangco and Ramon Ang. Why would Danding pick Ang over eldest son Mark when it came to who would be the succcessor of his business empire?
To begin with, Daughterte was not one who is power-hungry. She may be strong-willed and is the alpha-female of the family but she can never be accused of wanting to become President so badly because of her provenance. This, despite the ease with which she engineered the ouster of then Speaker Bebot Alvarez, a close friend of her father, with the help of GMA and Imee Marcos. This, more than being the campaign manager of HNP in the 2019 midterm election, established her political bonafides. Instead of anger, the father chuckled at the stunt the daughter pulled. Obviously, it was pride and admiration at his progeny.
Daugtherte gave GMA the opportunity to cap off her political career with a bang. There is only Jose P. Laurel who headed two branches of government in his lifetime. GMA is the second with the Executive and the Legislative. After her term ended, GMA kept under the political radar. The grateful President gave her a post which had her supervising the development plan for Region 3. But she was not done yet.
Apparently, she wrote her memoirs during this period and timed its release at the beginning of the jockeying for who would be running for President. Note the virtual apology to her nemesis Ping Lacson. It was a nod to Lacson’s probable win if the Marcos-Duterte coalition did not materialize. This is foresight and planning on Arroyo’s part.
The political family drama, which consumed the country last October and November, saw GMA working overtime behind the scenes. The media did not even find out that Lakas-CMD had filed CoC’s under placeholders for President and Vice-President. It was nerve-wracking to watch the politikaserye playing out between Duterte pere’ et fille. Father and daughter were playing a game of chicken. Eventually, it was GMA who saved the day because she would never allow a Yellowidiot comeback. Over her dead body. She was not done exacting political payback for what the Yellowidiots made her go through during her administration and five years in detenting during PNoy’s.
MLQ3 does not seem to be aware that GMA is also moving in the background to deliver the votes to Marcos-Duterte in Region 6, particularly Negros Island. She is of the same mindset as Chavit Singson. Campaign as if you were the one who is trailing the leader. She understands that the victory needs to be delivered in an emphatic manner, without any doubt and it has to be a greater majority not a simple majority.
This is why when the formal campaign period began, the campaign of the other candidates immediately faltered. Lacson-Sotto which was supposed to be the best organized and had the most support other than the opposition fell flat on its face. The presence of Kim Henares and Ronald Llamas in the Lacson camp was detrimental to the groundwork it laid in 2021. Lacson singing praises to PNoy worked against him and it did not help also that he opted to join the boycott of the SMNI Debate which was his opportunity to come face-to-face with Marcos.
This was a crucial blunder because Marcos would not participate in a debate where the issue would be him and his family again and not about platforms. He was proven correct when it turned out that the company which the Comelec sub-contracted the debates to, Impact Hub, turned out to be controlled by Gideon Pena, a known opposition supporter. This was the reason why the debate moderators kept on repeating the issue of Marcos’ absence with the empty podium as a symbol. It would appear that Impact Hub was not able to generate enough advertising revenue which resulted in a check payment to venue partner Sofitel being dishonored for lack of funds.
This only served to confirm the suspicions of a skeptical public about the conduct of the debates and why it seemed to favor one candidate, Leni Robredo. It is not beyond the opposition to pull off dirty tricks as their hypocrisy knows no bounds.
And what about Norberto Gonzales? Why did he run for President knowing fully well he could not and would not be competitive? Believe it or not, GMA was also once part of the socialist movement through the Association for Philippines-China Understanding, an organization headed by Rene Velasco. This was where she met with other like-minded activitists such as Bobi Tiglao, Gary Olivar and Patty Paez.
The Easter press conference of the other Presidential candidates, Isko Moreno, Ping Lacson and Gonzales himself was spearheaded by the latter and directed at the underhanded efforts being made by Leni Robredo to get them to withdraw from the race and support her instead. It is too easy to write it off as the folly of sourgraping candidates but a close observer could see the invisible hands leading lambs to slaughter. It was only Marcos who stood to benefit from that event.
Whether the opposition cares to admit it or not, their looming defeat is exactly as how GMA planned it. This diminutive woman, the least popular President of all time, is more Machiavellian than any of her male counterparts in politics. She may not be able to run for President again but she has made it her goal to finish what she started in 2001. She will most likely be elected Speaker of the House of Representatives again. It is also likely that she will spearhead the effort to amend the Constitution for the adoption of a federal parliamentary government.
Come June 30, the Philippines will be under three scions of former Presidents; Macapagal, Marcos and Duterte. With most of the reform agenda which requires legislation being done under the Duterte administration, we have an Executive under Marcos and Duterte and the lower chamber under a Macapagal-Arroyo. This is enough reason to be optimistic despite the turmoil prevailing in the world right now. The country is in the hands of competent leaders who have a vision of the direction the country and its citizens should take.
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