The cliché has been when America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold. This generally refers to the state of the US economy, which is the world’s largest, anchored by the Dollar, which is the global fiat currency.
The Russian-Ukraine conflict was stoked by the US and now the rest of the world is suffering from the chaos it has brought into the commodities markets. Prices are up and it could not have come at the most inopportune time when the global economy is just beginning to recover from the disruption caused by the pandemic.
The US itself has not been spared and the situation has been exacerbated by Joe Biden and the Democrat’s strategy of shifting to clean energy in the shortest time possible. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, gas prices were already up, driven by the increase in demand as countries reopened after the worst of the pandemic passed.
Those who do not read history are condemned to repeat it. Europe has a long history of conflict between the West and the East. The downfall of the Soviet empire and communism was a significant victory for the US and its European allies but they simply could not and would not stop there. They continued prodding the Russian bear and the consequences of that action now has the rest of the world suffering from high oil prices and the inflation it brings.
The US’ economic and financial hegemony is made possible by its being the largest economy in the world. This is what allows America to do what it wants and get away with it. History has proven this with the great depression preceding World War II. World War I was not only about European conflict but also about the need for oil to fuel the Industrial Revolution. World War II was the direct result of World War I.
Since World War II, the US had been on an economic growth spurt of unprecedented proportions, fueled by never ending war. The narrative has always been about good versus evil and no one has dared to call out America as evil even if it leaves dictatorships and failed states in its wake. The US has intervened countless times in sovereign states in the interest of good even if the results have been bad. Just look at its most recent foray into Iraq and Afghanistan. Yemen is still burning. Libya is a failed state without Qaddafi.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has the potential to turn into a broader conflict if not resolved soon, either diplomatically or militarily. If it becomes a drawn out war, there is the danger that the world is brought to the brink because of the economic suffering it brings to countries who are not involved at all. Foremost among these are China and India.
The elephant in the room is the comparison of Putin to Hitler for starting the conflict. By all accounts Putin is a Tsarist and looks to himself as one who will restore Russia back to her old glory not in the image of Bolsheviks but the White Russian image. There are conflicting reports about the level of support for the war among Russians. It is ironic that both sides are engaged in censorship. Propaganda is free-flowing from both sides. In the past, media covered the US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan extensively. Now there is barely any actual coverage of the war. This does not bode well for those whose interest lie in its quick resolution because of the heavy impact of high oil prices in their daily lives.
America and her European allies have strangled Russia economically and this in itself is dangerous because it might push Putin to opt for the nuclear option. Desperation drives men to desperate measures. But you have to wonder what is at stake in this conflict, specifically about the goals of the US. One is reminded of the film, Wag The Dog. The US economy was not doing well since Biden assumed office primarily because of the green initiatives of the Democratic President. Republicans are now calling for Biden to ease environmental caps on oil production, particularly fracking for shale oil, in an effort to ease the pressure on oil supply.
The conflict also should also make the world realize that the dependence on the US and its economic power must be balanced out. The rest of the world cannot afford to be at the economic mercy of the US when it decides to upend the global economic order with its rhetoric. For all intents and purposes, the US is in a proxy war with Russia. Think of Ukraine as the fall guy for the US in terms of ousting Putin. Is this really the outcome that the US wants?
China is intently watching on the sidelines. By far, it is the only country which has the means to overtake the US economically. Japan was in that position in the 80s but the US put a stop to that. It is for this reason that China has never made its currency freely tradeable. It does not intend to follow Japan into the economic hole the US dug for it. It also why Beijing has pushed back on its economic elite with their overseas investments. The Chinese have always played the long game since Deng Xiao Ping came to power and set China on the road to become an economic power.
It is about time that we changed our lens and call out the US for the consequences of its actions. We cannot have one country play god with our fates. Hopefully, there will come a time when the American hegemony will be minimized. It cannot and will not end because Americans will not allow it. Then and only then we will probably have more peace in the world instead of war.
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