2022 might as well be 1984 by George Orwell, if you want to believe the liberals. But as it is, we will be marking the second anniversary of our semi-dystopian existence in March, which is officially the second year of the pandemic.
2022 is not off to a good start as the Omicron variant rages throughout the world. It has been ravaging Europe and the US and other countries such as Australia and South Korea. It is more contagious than Delta, less severe in symptoms, but is known to cause long Covid, a condition where the body’s other organs are functionally affected by the viral strain.
We ended 2021 with a back-to-normal mindset even in the midst of the Delta variant which was actually bothersome considering Delta is, or was, also more contagious than the original viral strain and vaccine-resistant as well. But, people went about their business in Metro Manila like the pandemic had ended. It is the Filipino penchant for celebrating Christmas and New Year, like no other, which puts us back right where we started off after getting daily case counts down.
The pandemic hasn’t diminished the capacity of the world’s superpowers to engage in geopolitical brinkmanship. The US, China and Russia are still at it. The US and China in the South China Sea and the US and Russia in the disputed border of Ukraine. The global political order is divided between liberals and what the latter term as “populist dictators.” The war is not only being fought on the ground literally but also in the realm of social media, leaving the public constantly trying to figure out what is the truth. Imagine this, in an age where information is at your fingertips with a smartphone and the internet.
In the Philippines, the battle has been going on for five years with no end in sight. Duterte is described as populist dictator by Filipino leftist-liberals but they haven’t to make a dent in his popularity. He will step down from the Presidency in June as the most popular post-Marcos President.
The political environment in the country is best described as dystopian what with the opposition stuck in their belief that they have what it takes to lead the country and the people repudiating them in the past two election cycles. It’s obvious that Leni Robredo’s Presidential candidacy is going nowhere as Bongbong Marcos holds a double-digit lead over her in the year-end surveys. The opposition has been left scratching their heads why the public is enamored with Marcos again. The answer is staring them in the face but they refuse to acknowledge the fact that the average Filipino has wisened up to their gaslighting tactics. They will not allow the wool to be pulled over their eyes again.
What’s in store for the Philippines in 2022?
Much as one would like to be hopeful and optimistic, the outlook isn’t bright, again. The economy showed signs of life after the government’s successful handling of the Delta-induced surge after the vaccine deliveries accelerated. But Delta threw a monkey wrench into the equation and now, Omicron. The global economy is again under threat by the pandemic.
Vaccine inequity and resistance are the main stumbling blocks to prevent further mutations of the virus, which thrives in unvaccinated hosts. You have to wonder why the rich countries don’t exert the utmost efforts to get everyone vaccinated in order to stop mutations from occurring. This is the only way the pandemic will end and yet there continues to be no cogent strategy to achieve this goal.
The May 2022 election is crucial because the country needs a President who can lead and navigate through the perils of the pandemic and the geopolitical fallout of the US, China and Russia’s pissing contests throughout the world. It comes at a most inopportune time as the US is perceived to be weak with Biden as President while China and Russia are perceived to be strong with Xi Jin Pin and Putin as their leaders.
The Philippines and the rest of ASEAN have to contend with the emergence of the QUAD as an economic and military alliance led by the US with Japan, Australia and India in tow, against China. On the other hand, China and Russia are developing closer ties with the two beginning joint-patrols in the disputed waters of the East China Sea. These have resulted in heightened military tensions as both the US and Chinese navy’s have intensified patrols and exercises in the waters off Taiwan, which is a flashpoint between the US and China.
On the economic front, the Philippines needs more foreign direct investment in order to recapitalize the economy and jumpstart it. Debt-to-GDP ratio has increased due to pandemic response and drop in revenues due to the pandemic and continued funding of social amelioration programs. The government cannot keep on borrowing to bridge the budget deficit as it will only widen without revenue generation.
The next President’s priorities should include bureaucratic reform through the digitization and interoperability of government departments and agencies, increasing healthcare capacity, continued infrastructure development, education reform, budget reform and regional development to curb economic inequity caused by the focus on economic activities in Luzon, whose lockdown caused tremendous losses in 2020.
Political pundits are conceding the Presidency to Bongbong Marcos at this point. But the reality is, it’s too early to do so. Duterte isn’t the type who will accept a setback easily. The contradiction is likely to be grating on him as most popular and widely trusted post-Marcos President is without a designated successor with his party not even being a force at the local, much less the national level.
The only viable choices for the electorate are Sen. Ping Lacson and Marcos. The President has indicated his disdain for the latter. But the probability of his endorsing Marcos is not nil and the same goes for Lacson. It is not likely that Duterte will endorse either Robredo, Moreno or Pacquiao, all of whom fall woefully short of the bare minimum qualifications for the Presidency.
Lacson has detailed his plans and programs if elected, while Marcos hasn’t made public his governance platform and plans of action given the hurdles he has faced putting together his ticket with Presidential daughter, Sara Duterte.
It remains to be seen how the two will fare in the debate series for the two top posts in the land as the Lacson-Sotto tandem has the advantage of experience and track record in their favor against the relative youthfulness of the Marcos-Duterte combine. The Comelec still has to rule on the disqualification cases filed against Marcos by the opposition. It remains to be seen how the Comelec will rule but it’s interesting to note that come February, all seven Comelec Commissioners will have been appointed by the President.
The campaign is a marathon and will formally begin in February. It will definitely be an interesting race as election day draws near. A lot can still happen between now and May.
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