[Newsstand] Dynamic race, static survey?
The second aspect to note is that the survey was conducted between February 18 and 23 – before the Robredo rally in Iloilo on February 25 (40,000 in attendance), the rally in Cavite on March 4 in the heart of Remulla territory (47,000), the rally in Bulacan on March 5 (45,000), the rally in Bacolod on March 11 (86,000), and then the astonishing rally in Isabela, right in the so-called pro-Marcos Solid North, on March 12 (10,000 – an extraordinary total, considering the local context). Other rallies, in different parts of the country, reached many thousands more.
Many endorsements from local government officials supporting Robredo – including Bulacan Governor Daniel Fernando, Eastern Samar Governor Ben Evardone, and Cagayan de Oro Representative Rufus Rodriguez – were announced after the survey snapshot was taken.
The extraordinary welcome Isko Moreno received in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, where he joined a mass oath-taking attended by some 50,000 participants, may have already been partly factored in in the survey, since it happened on February 20. But Moreno’s belated and sustained criticism of Marcos, part of his strategy to court President Duterte’s favor, started well after the survey period. Its effect, or its effectiveness, may only be reflected in a later survey.
It would be folly for Moreno to stop his new anti-Marcos campaign, or for Robredo to give up on her mobilization-is-the-message strategy, merely because Pulse Asia’s February survey seems to have caught a race in stasis.
As cRappler is the opposition’s unofficial propaganda machine, John Nery probably had to rush this column to defend the poor showing of Len-Len Robredo in the latest Pulse Asia survey. It shows Bongbong Marcos holding at 60% voter preference while Robredo is only at 16%.
In street language, tumatambling na si John Nery para ipaliwanag kung bakit hindi pa rin umaangat si Len-Len kahit lutang-na-lutang na siya.
Nery goes as far to claim that the “race is in stasis.” You wonder why he just did not use “suspended animation.” But this is just a euphemism to disguise the fact that Marcos has been maintaining his lead while Robredo has not been moving the needle at all.
Of course, there is the claim that the “snapshot” was taken before the “massive rallies” that Robredo held in key regional centers in the country such as Cagayan De Oro, Bacolod, General Trias and up north in Alcala, which is not even the capital of Cagayan but the bailiwick of one of her supporters.
56 days to go: Polarization, battle of narratives, class divides #Halalan2022
I’m not saying the rallies do not matter—they absolutely do. On ground, in places like Butuan and Tuguegarao where there is a dire lack of campaign materials, tricycle drivers started asking for stickers (this dire lack is also in places like Negros Oriental, Maguindanao, Sultan Kudarat, Eastern Samar). Content-wise, it’s the only way to battle it out with the caravan content of Marcos, and maybe even their massive pull down content versus Robredo.
But is it enough? In the battle of narratives, it barely is. If you look at the push-and-pull of content, the rally photos are taken down by both sides in exactly the same way: by putting numbers into question. And while it’s easy to think that what WE think is all that matters, sadly, that isn’t true. What we think only matters to us, and to some extent reveals our privilege.
But what might be important to talk about as well is how the past week, what one also heard was a shift in the voice of the Robredo campaign: a shift to the elitism that harks back to the 2016 campaign, if not the Liberal admin of 2010 to 2016. When Sharon Cuneta started talking about “Returning decency to government”—this feeds into the 2016 narrative of the Roxas campaign, which spelled its doom—the Duterte campaign latched onto that for dear life, won the election, and for six years took down the Liberals precisely for being “disente.” They did it so well that they transformed “disente” into a pejorative. And no, it doesn’t matter if you agree or not—in the battle for votes of the 31%, “disente” rhetoric ain’t going to help us.
The same might be said for the shift in VP Leni’s speeches where she talks about corruption and how a government with receipts means a better life for everyone. This harks back to “Kung walang kurap, walang mahirap,” which the mahirap themselves have proven false. Their lives in the present are proof positive that the connection between an incorruptible President and poverty alleviation is a false one. To fall back on that now might be a major misstep. Because how can “gobyernong tapat” promise “angat-buhay lahat,” when “kung walang kurap” failed to deliver on its promise of “walang mahirap”?
Narrative-wise, this is something the official campaign of Robredo might want to re-think. The same for: “maghanap ng resibo.” Because in a country where majority live off an informal economy, receipts are not default. It’s also online speak that we have yet to prove has trickled down to the demographic that is barely online.
With 57 days to go, it’s now more important to stick to narratives that resonate, not ones that feed into the divides. Think of the rallies as an expansion on the online echo chamber—except with a very real possibility of getting tricycle drivers and people in the margins of the city interested in Robredo. That is of course if the language that’s used reeks less of elitism, and speaks more to basic needs and the important demands of these times.
The opposition would have been better off having Katrina Stuart Santiago on Robredo’s campaign team because she is at least not tone-deaf as one like Bam Aquino is. But Bambina has provenance because of his father Paul, a former campaign manager before he was rewarded handsomely by being appointed President of the one of the PNOC subsidiaries where he proceeded to sell the geothermal plants to the oligarchs near and dear to Kamaganak Inc.
Radikal Chick, which is Santiago’s sobriquet, makes a valid point about narratives. Len-Len is not identified with the “laylayan” no matter how much she claims that they are her primary constituency. The breakdown in the economic classes in the surveys proves this point.
One also has to admire Kat’s fighting spirit. House-to-house, one voter at a time. At that rate, fifty-six days is not enough. Nor is it feasible given the majority of the population belong to the D and E scattered across the country. She is also the only one who recognizes the damage that Sharon Cuneta’s statements has had on the campaign. Not only about the CPP-NPA but also how she publicly castrated Kiko about the reason why she has to continue toiling in showbiz.
The simple explanation to why Marcos continues to lead in the surveys is the 18 – 45 demographic is roughly 45M voters out of the Comelec registered total of 63M. These are Filipinos born between 1977 – 2004 who all grew up under Yellowidiot administrations. They were particularly witness to the actuations of the biggest idiot of them all, PNoy. They have seen what Duterte has been able to accomplish in five years as opposed to what PNoy could not during this tenure. Do you think that the D and E classes of this demographic would vote for Robredo as President?
The opposition continues to lay blame at the Marcos’ feet for their predicament. But in truth and in fact, Marcos had nothing to do with it. For sure, the Marcos’ will not directly answer any questions about ill-gotten wealth.
The Kingmaker gave Imelda the opportunity to showcase her trove of documents pertaining to the cases filed against her and her family by the government. Andy Bautista categorically states the up to $4B has been recovered by the PCGG but he does not say anything about the status of the pending cases and what are the chances of the government winning them.
No Marcos crony has been convicted for any charges filed against them. Most of them have died. Only Lucio Tan survives among the richest of them. PLDT is controlled by an Indonesian. San Miguel is out of sequestration by sleight of hand at immense profit for the government. UCPB is about to be merged with Land Bank because it is not attractive enough for other banks to purchase after it had been raided by PCGG-nominated board directors. Long story short, corruption was not even minimized. It got worst after Marcos was ousted. And even Gerardo Sicat, in his paper The Economic Legacy of Marcos, debunks the myth that cronyism only surfaced with Marcos’. Every government even during the Spanish and American colonial periods, had cronies. They continue today as oligarchs, both pro-Marcos and anti-Marcos.
The opposition is gaslilghting the public into submission what with statements about Robredo’s leading social media engagements and Google Search Trends. This is the only way they can counteract her low voter preference in the surveys. It has gone to the extent that current UP professors in statistics are discrediting their former colleagues who are now with the survey firms.
The opposition’s ranks are exhibiting co-dependent psychological dysfunction as they continue to believe that it is not a lost race and Robredo can still overcome Marcos’ lead with the time left in the campaign. Narcissists are detached from the real world as they believe that what is in their heads is reality.
The opposition should listen to the Iron Butterfly who said in The Kingmaker, “perception is real and the truth is not.” But in the case of her son’s candidacy, both perception and the truth are in agreement.
All things being equal, on June 30, 2022, Imelda Romualdez Marcos will make a grand comeback to Malacanan Palace as the mother of the President of the Republic of the Philippines.
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